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Ambiguity of scientific probability predictions and willingness-to-pay for climate change mitigation policies

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  • Watanabe, Masahide
  • Fujimi, Toshio

Abstract

We estimate a smooth ambiguity preference function, wherein an individual faces multiple probability predictions of policy outcomes, and then empirically measure their willingness-to-pay for the policy, ambiguity attitude, and ambiguity premium. Climate change mitigation policy is used as the example. The estimation results reveal that most people have ambiguity-seeking attitudes, but that these attitudes are heterogeneous across individuals. People who are older, are university graduates, have higher income, or trust more in science show stronger ambiguity-seeking attitudes. Their willingness-to-pay can be underestimated if ambiguity is not considered. Moreover, individuals with stronger ambiguity-seeking attitudes support aggressive mitigation policies more strongly. Our estimation strategy is generally applicable to policy evaluations wherein policy outcomes are ambiguous.

Suggested Citation

  • Watanabe, Masahide & Fujimi, Toshio, 2022. "Ambiguity of scientific probability predictions and willingness-to-pay for climate change mitigation policies," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(4), pages 386-402.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reecon:v:76:y:2022:i:4:p:386-402
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2022.09.007
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ambiguity attitude; Ambiguity premium; Climate change; Policy evaluation; Smooth ambiguity model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities

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