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Uncertainty and central bank transparency: A non-Bayesian approach

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  • Laskar, Daniel

Abstract

We use a non-Bayesian approach to uncertainty, where “ambiguity” is taken into account, in order to analyze the issue of central bank transparency, and we underline that the use of such an approach may greatly change the results. We reconsider a specific argument against transparency found in the literature. We show that, in the presence of ambiguity, the argument can become a case in favor of transparency, which seems more in accordance with some stylized facts. Reduced Knightian uncertainty associated with increased transparency can contribute to making transparency beneficial.

Suggested Citation

  • Laskar, Daniel, 2012. "Uncertainty and central bank transparency: A non-Bayesian approach," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 82-96.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reecon:v:66:y:2012:i:1:p:82-96
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2011.10.004
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    1. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
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    4. Faust, Jon & Svensson, Lars E O, 2001. "Transparency and Credibility: Monetary Policy with Unobservable Goals," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(2), pages 369-397, May.
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    6. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
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    12. Dai, Meixing & Sidiropoulos, Moïse, 2008. "Central bank's conservativeness and transparency," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(4), pages 179-187, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sorge, Marco M., 2013. "Robust delegation with uncertain monetary policy preferences," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 73-78.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central bank transparency; Knightian uncertainty; Ambiguity; Non-Bayesian approach; Political uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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