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Predicting stock returns from the pricing and mispricing of accounting fundamentals

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  • Walkshäusl, Christian

Abstract

This paper examines Nichols et al.’s (2017) fundamentals-based valuation model that links share prices to accounting fundamentals in European equity markets. The model explains, on average, 69 % of the cross-sectional share price variation among European firms. Deviations of share prices from the model’s fundamental value estimates hold unique information about subsequent stock returns that goes beyond established determinants of the cross-section. Firms identified as undervalued outperform firms perceived as overvalued by more than 0.54 % per month after controlling for firm size, book-to-market, operating profitability, investment, and momentum. Hence, the market seems to incorporate fundamental information only gradually.

Suggested Citation

  • Walkshäusl, Christian, 2021. "Predicting stock returns from the pricing and mispricing of accounting fundamentals," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 253-260.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:81:y:2021:i:c:p:253-260
    DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2021.06.011
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Return predictability; Fundamental analysis; Mispricing; Stock returns; European markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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