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Multifactor risk loadings and abnormal returns under uncertainty and learning

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  • Salotti, Simone
  • Trecroci, Carmine

Abstract

We explore the time variation of factor loadings and abnormal returns in the context of a four-factor model. Our methodology, based on an application of the Kalman filter and on endogenous uncertainty, overcomes several limitations of competing approaches used in the literature. Besides taking learning into account, it does not rely on any conditioning information, and it only imposes minimal assumptions on the time variation of the parameters. Our estimates capture both short- and long-term fluctuations of risk loadings and abnormal returns, also showing marked variation across US industry portfolios. The results from mean-variance spanning tests indicate that our baseline model yields accurate predictions and can therefore improve pricing and performance measurement.

Suggested Citation

  • Salotti, Simone & Trecroci, Carmine, 2014. "Multifactor risk loadings and abnormal returns under uncertainty and learning," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 393-404.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:54:y:2014:i:3:p:393-404
    DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2014.04.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Giovanna Bua & Carmine Trecroci, 2019. "International equity markets interdependence: bigger shocks or contagion in the 21st century?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 155(1), pages 43-69, February.
    2. Carmine Trecroci, 2014. "How Do Alphas and Betas Move? Uncertainty, Learning and Time Variation in Risk Loadings," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(2), pages 257-278, April.
    3. Jiang, Minqi & Liu, Jiapeng & Zhang, Lu, 2021. "An extended regularized Kalman filter based on Genetic Algorithm: Application to dynamic asset pricing models," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 28-44.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Multifactor models; Time-varying alphas; Time-varying betas;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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