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Optimal taxation and insurance using machine learning — Sufficient statistics and beyond

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  • Kasy, Maximilian

Abstract

How should one use (quasi-)experimental evidence when choosing policies such as tax rates, health insurance copay, unemployment benefit levels, and class sizes in schools? This paper suggests an approach based on maximizing posterior expected social welfare, combining insights from (i) optimal policy theory as developed in the field of public finance, and (ii) machine learning using Gaussian process priors. We provide explicit formulas for posterior expected social welfare and optimal policies in a wide class of policy problems.

Suggested Citation

  • Kasy, Maximilian, 2018. "Optimal taxation and insurance using machine learning — Sufficient statistics and beyond," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 205-219.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:167:y:2018:i:c:p:205-219
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2018.09.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Liyang Tang, 2020. "Application of Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous Input (NARX) neural network in macroeconomic forecasting, national goal setting and global competitiveness assessment," Papers 2005.08735, arXiv.org.
    2. Nicolo Cesa-Bianchi & Roberto Colomboni & Maximilian Kasy, 2023. "Adaptive maximization of social welfare," Papers 2310.09597, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2024.
    3. Erokhin, Dmitry & Zagler, Martin, 2024. "Who will sign a double tax treaty next? A prediction based on economic determinants and machine learning algorithms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    4. A Stefano Caria & Grant Gordon & Maximilian Kasy & Simon Quinn & Soha Osman Shami & Alexander Teytelboym, 2024. "An Adaptive Targeted Field Experiment: Job Search Assistance for Refugees in Jordan," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 22(2), pages 781-836.
    5. Davide Viviano & Jess Rudder, 2020. "Policy design in experiments with unknown interference," Papers 2011.08174, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    6. Christoph Breunig & Ruixuan Liu & Zhengfei Yu, 2022. "Double Robust Bayesian Inference on Average Treatment Effects," Papers 2211.16298, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Optimal policy; Gaussian process priors; Posterior expected welfare;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

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