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Populism and propagation of far-right extremism

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  • Hagemeister, Felix

Abstract

Under which conditions does populist success propagate far-right extremism? This paper examines how an information shock about the acceptance of xenophobic positions spurs an increase in far-right protests in more liberal areas in Germany. Using staggered state elections between 2014 and 2017 as a quasi-natural experiment and leveraging novel data, I show that far-right protests are unleashed in more liberal areas which were “shocked” by the surprising state-level results of the newly emerging right-wing populist AfD party (“Alternative für Deutschland”). The effect is sizeable, but depends on surprise. When success of the populist party is severely underestimated, a municipality with a populist vote share 10 percentage points below state average faces a roughly 30 percent increase of the mean likelihood of an additional far-right protest. The effect materializes only after the rightward shift of the AfD and vanishes when polling institutions correctly estimate the populist party’s success.

Suggested Citation

  • Hagemeister, Felix, 2022. "Populism and propagation of far-right extremism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:72:y:2022:i:c:s0176268021000999
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2021.102116
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    Cited by:

    1. Massimo Pulejo, 2023. "Pro-Social Backlash: The Effect of Far-Right Success on Voluntary Welfare Provision," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 23214, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    2. Celico, Andrea & Rode, Martin & Rodriguez-Carreño, Ignacio, 2024. "Will the real populists please stand up? A machine learning index of party populism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    3. Silva, Rui, 2024. "Well-being foundations of populism in Europe," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Populism; Far-right; Extremism; Protests; Germany;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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