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Illusion of persistence in NBA 1995–2018 regular season data

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  • Kononovicius, A.

Abstract

Among the sports fans beliefs about “hot hands” and “winning streaks” are widely spread, while the scientific debate about these effects is still ongoing. Recently in a paper by Ferreira (2018) detrended fluctuation analysis was applied to the NBA teams’ win records. It was shown that 28 considered NBA teams exhibit persistence in the win record time series. In this paper we take the same data set and compare the obtained results against various random models. We find that the empirical results are consistent with the results obtained from various simple random models.

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  • Kononovicius, A., 2019. "Illusion of persistence in NBA 1995–2018 regular season data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 520(C), pages 250-256.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:520:y:2019:i:c:p:250-256
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2019.01.039
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Song, Kai & Gao, Yiran & Shi, Jian, 2020. "Making real-time predictions for NBA basketball games by combining the historical data and bookmaker’s betting line," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 547(C).

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