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Deciphering the fluctuations of high frequency birth rates

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  • Herteliu, Claudiu
  • Richmond, Peter
  • Roehner, Bertrand M.

Abstract

Here the term “high frequency” refers to daily, weekly or monthly birth data. The fluctuations of daily birth numbers show a succession of spikes and dips which, at least at first sight, looks almost as random as white noise. However in recent times several studies were published, including by the present authors, which have given better insight into how birth is affected by exogenous factors. This paper demonstrates how it is possible to examine the adverse effects of catastrophes such as famines, diseases, earthquakes and heat waves on conceptions and link these to subsequent large anomalous troughs in the birth rate. Using both contemporary and historical data we also explore the changes over time which have taken place in birth rate troughs that arise from religious edicts within the Orthodox and Catholic populations in Romania and France respectively. These as well as other effects raise the hope that we will soon be able to “read” and interpret birth rate patterns in the same manner as for example Egyptologists may decipher hieroglyphs.

Suggested Citation

  • Herteliu, Claudiu & Richmond, Peter & Roehner, Bertrand M., 2018. "Deciphering the fluctuations of high frequency birth rates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 509(C), pages 1046-1061.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:509:y:2018:i:c:p:1046-1061
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2018.06.057
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:cai:popine:popu_p1979_34n2_0457 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:cai:popine:popu_p1985_40n2_0362 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Claudiu Herteliu & Bogdan Vasile Ileanu & Marcel Ausloos & Giulia Rotundo, 2015. "Effect of religious rules on time of conception in Romania from 1905 to 2001," Papers 1509.04564, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2015.
    4. Richmond, Peter & Roehner, Bertrand M., 2018. "Coupling between death spikes and birth troughs. Part 2: Comparative analysis of salient features," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 506(C), pages 88-96.
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    6. Kevin McQuillan, 2004. "When Does Religion Influence Fertility?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 30(1), pages 25-56, March.
    7. Richmond, Peter & Roehner, Bertrand M., 2018. "Coupling between death spikes and birth troughs. Part 1: Evidence," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 506(C), pages 97-111.
    8. Daniel Seiver, 1985. "Trend and variation in the seasonality of U.S. fertility, 1947–1976," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 22(1), pages 89-100, February.
    9. Grégoire Rey & Anne Fouillet & Éric Jougla & Denis Hémon, 2007. "Vagues de chaleur, fluctuations ordinaires des températures et mortalité en France depuis 1971," Population (french edition), Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), vol. 62(3), pages 533-563.
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    1. Carles X. Simó-Noguera & Josep Lledó & Jose M. Pavía, 2020. "Lent impact on the seasonality of conceptions during the twentieth century in Spain," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 36(5), pages 875-893, November.

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