IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v509y2018icp1046-1061.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Deciphering the fluctuations of high frequency birth rates

Author

Listed:
  • Herteliu, Claudiu
  • Richmond, Peter
  • Roehner, Bertrand M.

Abstract

Here the term “high frequency” refers to daily, weekly or monthly birth data. The fluctuations of daily birth numbers show a succession of spikes and dips which, at least at first sight, looks almost as random as white noise. However in recent times several studies were published, including by the present authors, which have given better insight into how birth is affected by exogenous factors. This paper demonstrates how it is possible to examine the adverse effects of catastrophes such as famines, diseases, earthquakes and heat waves on conceptions and link these to subsequent large anomalous troughs in the birth rate. Using both contemporary and historical data we also explore the changes over time which have taken place in birth rate troughs that arise from religious edicts within the Orthodox and Catholic populations in Romania and France respectively. These as well as other effects raise the hope that we will soon be able to “read” and interpret birth rate patterns in the same manner as for example Egyptologists may decipher hieroglyphs.

Suggested Citation

  • Herteliu, Claudiu & Richmond, Peter & Roehner, Bertrand M., 2018. "Deciphering the fluctuations of high frequency birth rates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 509(C), pages 1046-1061.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:509:y:2018:i:c:p:1046-1061
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2018.06.057
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437118307817
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2018.06.057?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kevin McQuillan, 2004. "When Does Religion Influence Fertility?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 30(1), pages 25-56, March.
    2. Richmond, Peter & Roehner, Bertrand M., 2018. "Coupling between death spikes and birth troughs. Part 1: Evidence," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 506(C), pages 97-111.
    3. repec:cai:popine:popu_p1979_34n2_0457 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:cai:popine:popu_p1985_40n2_0362 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Daniel Seiver, 1985. "Trend and variation in the seasonality of U.S. fertility, 1947–1976," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 22(1), pages 89-100, February.
    6. Claudiu Herteliu & Bogdan Vasile Ileanu & Marcel Ausloos & Giulia Rotundo, 2015. "Effect of religious rules on time of conception in Romania from 1905 to 2001," Papers 1509.04564, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2015.
    7. Grégoire Rey & Anne Fouillet & Éric Jougla & Denis Hémon, 2007. "Vagues de chaleur, fluctuations ordinaires des températures et mortalité en France depuis 1971," Population (french edition), Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), vol. 62(3), pages 533-563.
    8. Richmond, Peter & Roehner, Bertrand M., 2018. "Coupling between death spikes and birth troughs. Part 2: Comparative analysis of salient features," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 506(C), pages 88-96.
    9. repec:cai:poeine:pope_703_0457 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Carles X. Simó-Noguera & Josep Lledó & Jose M. Pavía, 2020. "Lent impact on the seasonality of conceptions during the twentieth century in Spain," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 36(5), pages 875-893, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Richmond, Peter & Roehner, Bertrand M. & Wang, Qing-hai, 2019. "The physics of large-scale food crises," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 522(C), pages 274-293.
    2. Carles X. Simó-Noguera & Josep Lledó & Jose M. Pavía, 2020. "Lent impact on the seasonality of conceptions during the twentieth century in Spain," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 36(5), pages 875-893, November.
    3. Carranza, Eliana, 2012. "Islamic inheritance law, son preference and fertility behavior of Muslim couples in Indonesia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5972, The World Bank.
    4. Bertoli, Simone & Marchetta, Francesca, 2015. "Bringing It All Back Home – Return Migration and Fertility Choices," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 27-40.
    5. Laura Birg & Anna Goeddeke, 2016. "Christmas Economics—A Sleigh Ride," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(4), pages 1980-1984, October.
    6. Barbara S. Okun, 2013. "Fertility and marriage behavior in Israel," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 28(17), pages 457-504.
    7. Cătălin Emilian Boja & Claudiu Herţeliu & Marian Dârdală & Bogdan Vasile Ileanu, 2018. "Day of the week submission effect for accepted papers in Physica A, PLOS ONE, Nature and Cell," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 117(2), pages 887-918, November.
    8. Kumo, Kazuhiro & Perugini, Cristiano, 2023. "Religion, Ideology and Fertility," IZA Discussion Papers 16159, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Alan Barreca & Olivier Deschenes & Melanie Guldi, 2018. "Maybe Next Month? Temperature Shocks and Dynamic Adjustments in Birth Rates," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(4), pages 1269-1293, August.
    10. Lee, Jong-Wha & Francisco, Ruth, 2012. "Human capital accumulation in emerging Asia, 1970–2030," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 76-86.
    11. Klaus Prettner & Holger Strulik, 2017. "It's a Sin—Contraceptive Use, Religious Beliefs, and Long-run Economic Development," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 543-566, August.
    12. Sarah Hamersma & Yilin Hou & Yusun Kim & Douglas Wolf, 2018. "Business Cycles, Medicaid Generosity, and Birth Outcomes," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 37(5), pages 729-749, October.
    13. Sara Yeatman & Jenny Trinitapoli, 2008. "Beyond denomination: The relationship between religion and family planning in rural Malawi," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(55), pages 1851-1882.
    14. Joshua R. Goldstein & Sebastian Klüsener, 2014. "Spatial Analysis of the Causes of Fertility Decline in Prussia," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 40(3), pages 497-525, September.
    15. Ausloos, Marcel & Nedic, Olgica & Dekanski, Aleksandar, 2016. "Day of the week effect in paper submission/acceptance/rejection to/in/by peer review journals," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 456(C), pages 197-203.
    16. Jose M. Pavía & Josep Lledó, 2022. "Estimation of the combined effects of ageing and seasonality on mortality risk: An application to Spain," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(2), pages 471-497, April.
    17. Laura Piqué-Fandiño & Sandrine Gallois & Samuel Pavard & Fernando V Ramirez Rozzi, 2022. "Reproductive seasonality in the Baka Pygmies, environmental factors and climatic changes," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(3), pages 1-18, March.
    18. Po Wong, 2011. "Mothers’ Marital Status and Type of Delivery Medical Care in Guatemala," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 30(1), pages 43-57, February.
    19. Sam Hyun Yoo & Victor Agadjanian, 2021. "The paradox of change: Religion and fertility decline in South Korea," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 44(23), pages 537-562.
    20. Joshua Wilde & Benedicte Apouey & Toni Jung, 2014. "Heat Waves at Conception and Later Life Outcomes," Working Papers 0514, University of South Florida, Department of Economics.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:509:y:2018:i:c:p:1046-1061. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.