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Decision making generalized by a cumulative probability weighting function

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  • dos Santos, Lindomar Soares
  • Destefano, Natália
  • Martinez, Alexandre Souto

Abstract

Typical examples of intertemporal decision making involve situations in which individuals must choose between a smaller reward, but more immediate, and a larger one, delivered later. Analogously, probabilistic decision making involves choices between options whose consequences differ in relation to their probability of receiving. In Economics, the expected utility theory (EUT) and the discounted utility theory (DUT) are traditionally accepted normative models for describing, respectively, probabilistic and intertemporal decision making. A large number of experiments confirmed that the linearity assumed by the EUT does not explain some observed behaviors, as nonlinear preference, risk-seeking and loss aversion. That observation led to the development of new theoretical models, called non-expected utility theories (NEUT), which include a nonlinear transformation of the probability scale. An essential feature of the so-called preference function of these theories is that the probabilities are transformed by decision weights by means of a (cumulative) probability weighting function, w(p). We obtain in this article a generalized function for the probabilistic discount process. This function has as particular cases mathematical forms already consecrated in the literature, including discount models that consider effects of psychophysical perception. We also propose a new generalized function for the functional form of w. The limiting cases of this function encompass some parametric forms already proposed in the literature. Far beyond a mere generalization, our function allows the interpretation of probabilistic decision making theories based on the assumption that individuals behave similarly in the face of probabilities and delays and is supported by phenomenological models.

Suggested Citation

  • dos Santos, Lindomar Soares & Destefano, Natália & Martinez, Alexandre Souto, 2018. "Decision making generalized by a cumulative probability weighting function," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 490(C), pages 250-259.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:490:y:2018:i:c:p:250-259
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2017.08.022
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Salvador Cruz Rambaud & Ana María Sánchez Pérez, 2020. "Discounted and Expected Utility from the Probability and Time Trade-Off Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-17, April.
    2. Cruz Rambaud, Salvador & Parra Oller, Isabel María & Valls Martínez, María del Carmen, 2018. "The amount-based deformation of the q-exponential discount function: A joint analysis of delay and magnitude effects," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 508(C), pages 788-796.

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