IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v487y2017icp40-46.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Statistical characteristics of breakthrough discoveries in science using the metaphor of black and white swans

Author

Listed:
  • Zeng, Carl J.
  • Qi, Eric P.
  • Li, Simon S.
  • Stanley, H. Eugene
  • Ye, Fred Y.

Abstract

A publication that reports a breakthrough discovery in a particular scientific field is referred to as a “black swan”, and the most highly-cited papers previously published in the same field “white swans”. Important scientific progress occurs when “white swans” meet a “black swan”, and the citation patterns of the “white swans” change. This metaphor combines scientific discoveries and scientometric data and suggests that breakthrough scientific discoveries are either “black swans” or “grey-black swans”.

Suggested Citation

  • Zeng, Carl J. & Qi, Eric P. & Li, Simon S. & Stanley, H. Eugene & Ye, Fred Y., 2017. "Statistical characteristics of breakthrough discoveries in science using the metaphor of black and white swans," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 487(C), pages 40-46.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:487:y:2017:i:c:p:40-46
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2017.05.041
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437117305599
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2017.05.041?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jiang Li & Fred Y. Ye, 2012. "The phenomenon of all-elements-sleeping-beauties in scientific literature," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 92(3), pages 795-799, September.
    2. Anthony F. J. van Raan, 2004. "Sleeping Beauties in science," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 59(3), pages 467-472, March.
    3. Aurel Avramescu, 1979. "Actuality and Obsolescence of Scientific Literature," Journal of the American Society for Information Science, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 30(5), pages 296-303, September.
    4. Jiang Li & Dongbo Shi, 2016. "Sleeping beauties in genius work: When were they awakened?," Journal of the Association for Information Science & Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 67(2), pages 432-440, February.
    5. Tibor Braun & Wolfgang Glänzel & András Schubert, 2010. "On Sleeping Beauties, Princes and other tales of citation distributions …," Research Evaluation, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 195-202, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hou, Jianhua & Yang, Xiucai, 2020. "Social media-based sleeping beauties: Defining, identifying and features," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2).
    2. Helena H. Zhang & Fred Y. Ye, 2020. "Identifying ‘associated-sleeping-beauties’ in ‘swan-groups’ based on small qualified datasets of physics and economics," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 122(3), pages 1525-1537, March.
    3. Ma, Yaxue & Ba, Zhichao & Zhao, Haiping & Sun, Jianjun, 2023. "How to configure intellectual capital of research teams for triggering scientific breakthroughs: Exploratory study in the field of gene editing," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4).
    4. Helena H. Zhang & Alesia A. Zuccala & Fred Y. Ye, 2019. "Tracing the ‘swan groups’ of physics and economics in the key publications of nobel laureates," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 119(1), pages 425-436, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jianhua Hou & Xiucai Yang, 2019. "Patent sleeping beauties: evolutionary trajectories and identification methods," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 120(1), pages 187-215, July.
    2. Aurora A. C. Teixeira & Pedro Cosme Vieira & Ana Patrícia Abreu, 2017. "Sleeping Beauties and their princes in innovation studies," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 110(2), pages 541-580, February.
    3. Onodera, Natsuo, 2016. "Properties of an index of citation durability of an article," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 981-1004.
    4. Helena H. Zhang & Alesia A. Zuccala & Fred Y. Ye, 2019. "Tracing the ‘swan groups’ of physics and economics in the key publications of nobel laureates," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 119(1), pages 425-436, April.
    5. Helena H. Zhang & Fred Y. Ye, 2020. "Identifying ‘associated-sleeping-beauties’ in ‘swan-groups’ based on small qualified datasets of physics and economics," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 122(3), pages 1525-1537, March.
    6. Hui Fang, 2018. "Analysing the variation tendencies of the numbers of yearly citations for sleeping beauties in science by using derivative analysis," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 115(2), pages 1051-1070, May.
    7. Jiang Li & Fred Y. Ye, 2016. "Distinguishing sleeping beauties in science," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 108(2), pages 821-828, August.
    8. ZhangJian Zong & XuanZhen Liu & Hui Fang, 2018. "Sleeping beauties with no prince based on the co-citation criterion," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 117(3), pages 1841-1852, December.
    9. Li, Jiang & Shi, Dongbo & Zhao, Star X. & Ye, Fred Y., 2014. "A study of the “heartbeat spectra” for “sleeping beauties”," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 493-502.
    10. Leihan Zhang & Ke Xu & Jichang Zhao, 2017. "Sleeping beauties in meme diffusion," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 112(1), pages 383-402, July.
    11. Philippe Gorry & Pascal Ragouet, 2016. "“Sleeping beauty” and her restless sleep: Charles Dotter and the birth of interventional radiology," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 107(2), pages 773-784, May.
    12. Miura, Takahiro & Asatani, Kimitaka & Sakata, Ichiro, 2023. "Revisiting the uniformity and inconsistency of slow-cited papers in science," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1).
    13. Ratnadeep Dey & Anurag Roy & Tanmoy Chakraborty & Saptarshi Ghosh, 2017. "Sleeping beauties in Computer Science: characterization and early identification," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 113(3), pages 1645-1663, December.
    14. Hui Fang, 2019. "A transition stage co-citation criterion for identifying the awakeners of sleeping beauty publications," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 121(1), pages 307-322, October.
    15. Yang, Jinqing & Bu, Yi & Lu, Wei & Huang, Yong & Hu, Jiming & Huang, Shengzhi & Zhang, Li, 2022. "Identifying keyword sleeping beauties: A perspective on the knowledge diffusion process," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1).
    16. Jianjun Sun & Chao Min & Jiang Li, 2016. "A vector for measuring obsolescence of scientific articles," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 107(2), pages 745-757, May.
    17. Yuh-Shan Ho & James Hartley, 2017. "Sleeping beauties in psychology," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 110(1), pages 301-305, January.
    18. Anthony F. J. van Raan, 2021. "Sleeping beauties gain impact in overdrive mode," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(5), pages 4311-4332, May.
    19. Jiang Li, 2014. "Citation curves of “all-elements-sleeping-beauties”: “flash in the pan” first and then “delayed recognition”," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 100(2), pages 595-601, August.
    20. Jianhua Hou & Xiucai Yang & Yang Zhang, 2023. "The effect of social media knowledge cascade: an analysis of scientific papers diffusion," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 128(9), pages 5169-5195, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:487:y:2017:i:c:p:40-46. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.