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Prediction (early recognition) of emerging flu strain clusters

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  • Li, X.
  • Phillips, J.C.

Abstract

Early detection of incipient dominant influenza strains is one of the key steps in the design and manufacture of an effective annual influenza vaccine. Here we report the most current results for pandemic H3N2 flu vaccine design. A 2006 model of dimensional reduction (compaction) of viral mutational complexity derives two-dimensional Cartesian mutational maps (2DMM) that exhibit an emergent dominant strain as a small and distinct cluster of as few as 10 strains. We show that recent extensions of this model can detect incipient strains one year or more in advance of their dominance in the human population. Our structural interpretation of our unexpectedly rich 2DMM involves sialic acid, and is based on nearly 6000 strains in a series of recent 3-year time windows. Vaccine effectiveness is predicted best by analyzing dominant mutational epitopes.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, X. & Phillips, J.C., 2017. "Prediction (early recognition) of emerging flu strain clusters," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 479(C), pages 371-378.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:479:y:2017:i:c:p:371-378
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2017.02.073
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marta Łuksza & Michael Lässig, 2014. "A predictive fitness model for influenza," Nature, Nature, vol. 507(7490), pages 57-61, March.
    2. Jihui Ping & Tiago J.S. Lopes & Chairul A. Nidom & Elodie Ghedin & Catherine A. Macken & Adam Fitch & Masaki Imai & Eileen A. Maher & Gabriele Neumann & Yoshihiro Kawaoka, 2015. "Development of high-yield influenza A virus vaccine viruses," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-15, November.
    3. Phillips, J.C., 2016. "Vaccine escape in 2013–4 and the hydropathic evolution of glycoproteins of A/H3N2 viruses," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 455(C), pages 38-43.
    4. Eva K. Lee & Fan Yuan & Ferdinand H. Pietz & Bernard A. Benecke & Greg Burel, 2015. "Vaccine Prioritization for Effective Pandemic Response," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 45(5), pages 425-443, October.
    5. Moret, M.A. & Pereira, H.B.B. & Monteiro, S.L. & Galeão, A.C., 2012. "Evolution of species from Darwin theory: A simple model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(8), pages 2803-2806.
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    Cited by:

    1. Phillips, J.C., 2021. "Synchronized attachment and the Darwinian evolution of coronaviruses CoV-1 and CoV-2," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 581(C).

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