Does sunspot numbers cause global temperatures? A reconsideration using non-parametric causality tests
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2016.04.013
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.
Other versions of this item:
- Hossein Hassani & Rangan Gupta & Xu Huang & Mansi Ghodsi, 2014. "Does Sunspot Numbers Cause Global Temperatures? A Reconsideration Using a Non-Parametric Causality Test," Working Papers 201427, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
References listed on IDEAS
- Rangan Gupta & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Olaoluwa S. Yaya, 2015.
"Do sunspot numbers cause global temperatures? Evidence from a frequency domain causality test,"
Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(8), pages 798-808, February.
- Rangan Gupta & Luis A. Gil-Alana & OlaOluwa S. Yaya, 2013. "Does Sunspot Numbers Cause Global Temperatures? Evidence from a Frequency Domain Causality Test," Working Papers 201382, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Hassani, Hossein & Silva, Emmanuel Sirimal & Gupta, Rangan & Das, Sonali, 2018.
"Predicting global temperature anomaly: A definitive investigation using an ensemble of twelve competing forecasting models,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 509(C), pages 121-139.
- Hossein Hassani & Emmanuel Sirimal Silva & Rangan Gupta & Sonali Das, 2015. "Predicting Global Temperature Anomaly: A Definitive Investigation Using an Ensemble of Twelve Competing Forecasting Models," Working Papers 201561, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996.
"Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
- Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "GLSDETREND: RATS procedure to perform local to unity GLS detrending," Statistical Software Components RTS00077, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "ERSTEST: RATS procedure to perform Elliott-Rothenberg-Stock unit root tests," Statistical Software Components RTS00066, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
- Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003.
"Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
- BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998. "Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models," Cahiers de recherche 9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "MULTIPLEBREAKS: RATS procedure to perform multiple structural change analysis," Statistical Software Components RTS00138, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to replicate examples of Bai-Perron procedure," Statistical Software Components RTZ00008, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "BAIPERRON: RATS procedure to perform Bai-Perron Test for Multiple Structural Changes," Statistical Software Components RTS00013, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Holmes, James M & Hutton, Patricia A, 1990. "On the Causal Relationship between Government Expenditures and National Income," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(1), pages 87-95, February.
- Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S. & Shittu, Olanrewaju I., 2014. "Global temperatures and sunspot numbers. Are they related?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 396(C), pages 42-50.
- Breitung, Jorg & Candelon, Bertrand, 2006. "Testing for short- and long-run causality: A frequency-domain approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 363-378, June.
- Hossein Hassani & Saeed Heravi & Anatoly Zhigljavsky, 2013. "Forecasting UK Industrial Production with Multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 395-408, August.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
- Hassani, Hossein & Heravi, Saeed & Zhigljavsky, Anatoly, 2009. "Forecasting European industrial production with singular spectrum analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 103-118.
- Hossein Hassani & Abdol S. Soofi & Anatoly Zhigljavsky, 2013. "Predicting inflation dynamics with singular spectrum analysis," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 176(3), pages 743-760, June.
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001.
"LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
- Hassani, Hossein, 2007. "Singular Spectrum Analysis: Methodology and Comparison," MPRA Paper 4991, University Library of Munich, Germany.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Hassani, Hossein & Silva, Emmanuel Sirimal & Gupta, Rangan & Das, Sonali, 2018.
"Predicting global temperature anomaly: A definitive investigation using an ensemble of twelve competing forecasting models,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 509(C), pages 121-139.
- Hossein Hassani & Emmanuel Sirimal Silva & Rangan Gupta & Sonali Das, 2015. "Predicting Global Temperature Anomaly: A Definitive Investigation Using an Ensemble of Twelve Competing Forecasting Models," Working Papers 201561, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Huang, Xu & Hassani, Hossein & Ghodsi, Mansi & Mukherjee, Zinnia & Gupta, Rangan, 2017.
"Do trend extraction approaches affect causality detection in climate change studies?,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 469(C), pages 604-624.
- Xu Huang & Hossein Hassani & Mansi Ghodsi & Zinnia Mukherjee & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "Do Trend Extraction Approaches Affect Causality Detection in Climate Change Studies?," Working Papers 201660, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2017. "Has global warming modified the relationship between sunspot numbers and global temperatures?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 468(C), pages 351-358.
- Ren, Weijie & Li, Baisong & Han, Min, 2020. "A novel Granger causality method based on HSIC-Lasso for revealing nonlinear relationship between multivariate time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 541(C).
- Huang, Xu & Maçaira, Paula Medina & Hassani, Hossein & Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando Luiz & Dhesi, Gurjeet, 2019. "Hydrological natural inflow and climate variables: Time and frequency causality analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 516(C), pages 480-495.
- Hossein Hassani & Xu Huang & Mansi Ghodsi, 2018. "Big Data and Causality," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 133-156, June.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Huang, Xu & Hassani, Hossein & Ghodsi, Mansi & Mukherjee, Zinnia & Gupta, Rangan, 2017.
"Do trend extraction approaches affect causality detection in climate change studies?,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 469(C), pages 604-624.
- Xu Huang & Hossein Hassani & Mansi Ghodsi & Zinnia Mukherjee & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "Do Trend Extraction Approaches Affect Causality Detection in Climate Change Studies?," Working Papers 201660, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Hassani, Hossein & Webster, Allan & Silva, Emmanuel Sirimal & Heravi, Saeed, 2015. "Forecasting U.S. Tourist arrivals using optimal Singular Spectrum Analysis," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 322-335.
- de Carvalho, Miguel & Rua, António, 2017.
"Real-time nowcasting the US output gap: Singular spectrum analysis at work,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 185-198.
- António Rua & Miguel de Carvalho, 2014. "Real-time nowcasting the US output gap: Singular spectrum analysis at work," Working Papers w201416, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Hassani, Hossein & Silva, Emmanuel Sirimal & Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Filis, George & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Forecasting accuracy evaluation of tourist arrivals," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 112-127.
- Isabel Cortés-Jiménez & Manuel ArtÃs, 2005.
"The role of the tourism sector in economic development - Lessons from the Spanish experience,"
ERSA conference papers
ersa05p488, European Regional Science Association.
- Isabel Cortes Jimenez & Manuel Artis Ortuno, 2006. "The role of the tourism sector in economic development. Lessons from the Spanish experience," Working Papers in Economics 158, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
- Hossein Hassani & Emmanuel Sirimal Silva & Rangan Gupta & Mawuli K. Segnon, 2015.
"Forecasting the price of gold,"
Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(39), pages 4141-4152, August.
- Hossein Hassani & Emmanuel Sirimal Silva & Rangan Gupta & Mawuli K. Segnon, 2014. "Forecasting the Price of Gold," Working Papers 201428, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Claude Diebolt & Cédric Doliger, 2005. "Becker vs. Easterlin. Education, Fertility and Growth in France after World War II," Working Papers 05-03, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
- repec:agr:journl:v:4(605):y:2015:i:4(605):p:133-144 is not listed on IDEAS
- Fatih Kaplan & Ayşe E. Ünal, 2020. "Industrial Production Index - Crude Oil Price Nexus: Russia, Kazakhstan And Azerbaijan," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 65(227), pages 119-142, October –.
- Ekrem ERDEM & Ahmet KOSEOGLU & Ali Gokhan YUCEL, 2016. "Testing the validity of the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle: New evidence from structural breaks for Turkey," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(607), S), pages 17-26, Summer.
- Uddin, Gazi Salah & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric, 2014.
"Financial development and poverty reduction nexus: A cointegration and causality analysis in Bangladesh,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 405-412.
- Uddin, Gazi Salah & Shahbaz, Muhammad & AROURI, Mohamed El Hedi, 2013. "Financial Development and Poverty Reduction Nexus:A Cointegration and Causality Analysis in Bangladesh," MPRA Paper 49264, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Aug 2013.
- Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan & Nyakabawo, Wendy & Wohar, Mark E., 2018.
"Do house prices hedge inflation in the US? A quantile cointegration approach,"
International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 15-26.
- Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta & Wendy Nyakabawo & Mark E. Wohar, 2017. "Do House Prices Hedge Inflation in the US? A Quantile Cointegration Approach," Working Papers 201707, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Tung Liu & Lee C. Spector, 2005.
"Dynamic employment adjustments over business cycles,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 151-169, January.
- Tung Liu & Lee C. Spector, 2003. "Dynamic employment adjustments over business cycles," Working Papers 200302, Ball State University, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2005.
- repec:agr:journl:v:4(605):y:2015:i:4(605):p:135-146 is not listed on IDEAS
- Mostafa Raeisi Sarkandiz & Robabeh Bahlouli, 2019. "The Stock Market between Classical and Behavioral Hypotheses: An Empirical Investigation of the Warsaw Stock Exchange," Econometric Research in Finance, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, vol. 4(2), pages 67-88, December.
- Giorgio Canarella & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2019.
"Unemployment rate hysteresis and the great recession: exploring the metropolitan evidence,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 61-79, January.
- Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2013. "Unemployment Rate Hysteresis and the Great Recession: Exploring the Metropolitan Evidence," Working papers 2013-19, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
- Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2014. "Unemployment Rate Hysteresis and the Great Recession: Exploring the Metropolitan Evidence," Working Papers 1403, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
- Giorgio Canarella & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2017. "Unemployment Rate Hysteresis and the Great Recession: Exploring the Metropolitan Evidence," Working Papers 201740, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Vicente Esteve & Francisco Requena, 2006. "A Cointegration Analysis of Car Advertising and Sales Data in the Presence of Structural Change," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 111-128.
- Singh, Manish K. & Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2021.
"Quantifying sovereign risk in the euro area,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 76-96.
- Manish K. Singh & Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2024. "Quantifying sovereign risk in the euro area," IREA Working Papers 202403, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2024.
- J. Andrew Hansz & Ying Zhang & Tingyu Zhou, 2017. "An Investigation into the Substitutability of Equity and Mortgage REITs in Real Estate Portfolios," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 338-364, April.
- Shahbaz, Muhammad & Loganathan, Nanthakumar & Sbia, Rashid & Afza, Talat, 2015.
"The effect of urbanization, affluence and trade openness on energy consumption: A time series analysis in Malaysia,"
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 683-693.
- Shahbaz, Muhammad & Sbia, Rashid & Nanthakumar, Loganathan & Afza, Talat, 2015. "The Effect of Urbanization, Affluence and Trade Openness on Energy Consumption: A Time Series Analysis in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 62743, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Mar 2015.
- Paul Gallimore & J. Andrew Hansz & Wikrom Prombutr & Ying Zhang, 2014. "Long-term Cointegrative and Short-term Causal Relations among U.S. Real Estate Sectors," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 17(3), pages 359-394.
- Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2015.
"“On the bi-directional causal relationship between public debt and economic growth in EMU countries”,"
IREA Working Papers
201512, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised May 2015.
- Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2015. "On the bi-directional causal relationship between public debt and economic growth in EMU countries," Working Papers 15-06, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
More about this item
Keywords
Causality; Singular Spectrum Analysis; Frequency domain; Global temperatures predictability; Sunspot numbers;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:460:y:2016:i:c:p:54-65. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.