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Hawkes-diffusion process and the conditional probability of defaults in the Eurozone

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  • Kim, Jungmu
  • Park, Yuen Jung
  • Ryu, Doojin

Abstract

This study examines market information embedded in the European sovereign CDS (credit default swap) market by analyzing the sovereign CDSs of 13 Eurozone countries from January 1, 2008, to February 29, 2012, which includes the recent Eurozone debt crisis period. We design the conditional probability of defaults for the CDS prices based on the Hawkes-diffusion process and obtain the theoretical prices of CDS indexes. To estimate the model parameters, we calibrate the model prices to empirical prices obtained from individual sovereign CDS term structure data. The estimated parameters clearly explain both cross-sectional and time-series data. Our empirical results show that the probability of a huge loss event sharply increased during the Eurozone debt crisis, indicating a contagion effect. Even countries with strong and stable economies, such as Germany and France, suffered from the contagion effect. We also find that the probability of small events is sensitive to the state of the economy, spiking several times due to the global financial crisis and the Greek government debt crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, Jungmu & Park, Yuen Jung & Ryu, Doojin, 2016. "Hawkes-diffusion process and the conditional probability of defaults in the Eurozone," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 449(C), pages 301-310.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:449:y:2016:i:c:p:301-310
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2015.12.087
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Puneet Pasricha & Dharmaraja Selvamuthu & Selvaraju Natarajan, 2022. "A contagion process with self-exciting jumps in credit risk applications," Papers 2202.12946, arXiv.org.

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