IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v392y2013i19p4242-4251.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Time-varying human mobility patterns with metapopulation epidemic dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Gong, Yong-Wang
  • Song, Yu-Rong
  • Jiang, Guo-Ping

Abstract

In this paper, explicitly considering the influences of an epidemic outbreak on human travel, a time-varying human mobility pattern is introduced to model the time variation of global human travel. The impacts of the pattern on epidemic dynamics in heterogeneous metapopulation networks, wherein each node represents a subpopulation with any number of individuals, are investigated by using a mean-field approach. The results show that the pattern does not alter the epidemic threshold, but can slightly lower the final average density of infected individuals as a whole. More importantly, we also find that the pattern produces different impacts on nodes with different degree, and that there exists a critical degree kc. For nodes with degree smaller than kc, the pattern produces a positive impact on epidemic mitigation; conversely, for nodes with degree larger than kc, the pattern produces a negative impact on epidemic mitigation.

Suggested Citation

  • Gong, Yong-Wang & Song, Yu-Rong & Jiang, Guo-Ping, 2013. "Time-varying human mobility patterns with metapopulation epidemic dynamics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(19), pages 4242-4251.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:392:y:2013:i:19:p:4242-4251
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2013.05.028
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437113004512
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2013.05.028?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wang, Yubo & Xiao, Gaoxi & Hu, Jie & Cheng, Tee Hiang & Wang, Limsoon, 2009. "Imperfect targeted immunization in scale-free networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(12), pages 2535-2546.
    2. Wang, Jia-zeng & Liu, Zeng-rong & Xu, Jianhua, 2007. "Epidemic spreading on uncorrelated heterogenous networks with non-uniform transmission," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 382(2), pages 715-721.
    3. Dorogovtsev, S.N. & Mendes, J.F.F., 2003. "Evolution of Networks: From Biological Nets to the Internet and WWW," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198515906.
    4. Shi, Hongjing & Duan, Zhisheng & Chen, Guanrong, 2008. "An SIS model with infective medium on complex networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(8), pages 2133-2144.
    5. Wu, Qingchu & Fu, Xinchu, 2011. "Modelling of discrete-time SIS models with awareness interactions on degree-uncorrelated networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(3), pages 463-470.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nikolaou, Paraskevas & Dimitriou, Loukas, 2020. "Identification of critical airports for controlling global infectious disease outbreaks: Stress-tests focusing in Europe," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sanders, Johnathan & Noble, Benjamin & Van Gorder, Robert A. & Riggs, Cortney, 2012. "Mobility matrix evolution for an SIS epidemic patch model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(24), pages 6256-6267.
    2. Juang, Jonq & Liang, Yu-Hao, 2015. "Analysis of a general SIS model with infective vectors on the complex networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 437(C), pages 382-395.
    3. Ya-Chun Gao & Zong-Wen Wei & Bing-Hong Wang, 2013. "Dynamic Evolution Of Financial Network And Its Relation To Economic Crises," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 24(02), pages 1-10.
    4. Zhou, Wei-Xing & Jiang, Zhi-Qiang & Sornette, Didier, 2007. "Exploring self-similarity of complex cellular networks: The edge-covering method with simulated annealing and log-periodic sampling," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 375(2), pages 741-752.
    5. Bezsudnov, I.V. & Snarskii, A.A., 2014. "From the time series to the complex networks: The parametric natural visibility graph," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 414(C), pages 53-60.
    6. Mark S. Handcock & Adrian E. Raftery & Jeremy M. Tantrum, 2007. "Model‐based clustering for social networks," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 170(2), pages 301-354, March.
    7. Huang, He & Chen, Yahong & Ma, Yefeng, 2021. "Modeling the competitive diffusions of rumor and knowledge and the impacts on epidemic spreading," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 388(C).
    8. Wang, Qingyun & Duan, Zhisheng & Chen, Guanrong & Feng, Zhaosheng, 2008. "Synchronization in a class of weighted complex networks with coupling delays," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(22), pages 5616-5622.
    9. F. W. S. Lima, 2015. "Evolution of egoism on semi-directed and undirected Barabási-Albert networks," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 26(12), pages 1-9.
    10. G. Ghoshal & M. E.J. Newman, 2007. "Growing distributed networks with arbitrary degree distributions," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 58(2), pages 175-184, July.
    11. Christel Kamp & Mathieu Moslonka-Lefebvre & Samuel Alizon, 2013. "Epidemic Spread on Weighted Networks," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(12), pages 1-10, December.
    12. Chang, Y.F. & Han, S.K. & Wang, X.D., 2018. "The way to uncover community structure with core and diversity," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 501(C), pages 111-119.
    13. Chakrabarti, Anindya S., 2015. "Stochastic Lotka-Volterra equations: A model of lagged diffusion of technology in an interconnected world," IIMA Working Papers WP2015-08-05, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    14. Wang, Xiaojie & Zhang, Xue & Zhao, Chengli & Yi, Dongyun, 2018. "Effectively identifying multiple influential spreaders in term of the backward–forward propagation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 512(C), pages 404-413.
    15. Roth, Camille, 2007. "Empiricism for descriptive social network models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 378(1), pages 53-58.
    16. Douglas R. White & Jason Owen-Smith & James Moody & Walter W. Powell, 2004. "Networks, Fields and Organizations: Micro-Dynamics, Scale and Cohesive Embeddings," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 95-117, May.
    17. L. da F. Costa & L. E.C. da Rocha, 2006. "A generalized approach to complex networks," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 50(1), pages 237-242, March.
    18. Perc, Matjaž, 2010. "Zipf’s law and log-normal distributions in measures of scientific output across fields and institutions: 40 years of Slovenia’s research as an example," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 358-364.
    19. Florian Blöchl & Fabian J. Theis & Fernando Vega-Redondo & Eric O'N. Fisher, 2010. "Which Sectors of a Modern Economy are most Central?," CESifo Working Paper Series 3175, CESifo.
    20. Leyi Zheng & Longkun Tang, 2019. "A Node-Based SIRS Epidemic Model with Infective Media on Complex Networks," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-14, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:392:y:2013:i:19:p:4242-4251. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.