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Stock markets and criticality in the current economic crisis

Author

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  • da Silva, Roberto
  • Zembrzuski, Marcelo
  • Correa, Fabio C.
  • Lamb, Luis C.

Abstract

We show that the current economic crisis has led the market to exhibit a non-critical behavior. We do so by analyzing the quantitative parameters of time series from the main assets of the Brazilian Stock Market BOVESPA. By monitoring global persistence we show a deviation of power law behavior during the crisis in a strong analogy with spin systems (from where this concept was originally conceived). Such behavior is corroborated by an emergent heavy tail of absolute return distribution and also by the magnitude autocorrelation exponent. Comparisons with universal exponents obtained in the international stock markets are also performed. This suggests how a thorough analysis of suitable exponents can bring a possible way of forecasting market crises characterized by non-criticality.

Suggested Citation

  • da Silva, Roberto & Zembrzuski, Marcelo & Correa, Fabio C. & Lamb, Luis C., 2010. "Stock markets and criticality in the current economic crisis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(23), pages 5460-5467.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:389:y:2010:i:23:p:5460-5467
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2010.08.021
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. C. R. da Cunha & R. da Silva, 2019. "Relevant Stylized Facts About Bitcoin: Fluctuations, First Return Probability, and Natural Phenomena," Papers 1905.03211, arXiv.org.
    3. Zitis, Pavlos I. & Contoyiannis, Yiannis & Potirakis, Stelios M., 2022. "Critical dynamics related to a recent Bitcoin crash," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).

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