IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v382y2007i2p557-564.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Equity prices as a simple harmonic oscillator with noise

Author

Listed:
  • Ataullah, Ali
  • Tippett, Mark

Abstract

The centred return on the London Stock Exchange's FTSE All Share Index is modelled as a simple harmonic oscillator with noise over the period from 1 January, 1994 until 30 June 2006. Our empirical results are compatible with the hypothesis that there is a period in the FTSE All Share Index of between two and two and one half years. This means the centred return will on average continue to increase for about a year after reaching the minimum in its oscillatory cycle; alternatively, it will continue on average to decline for about a year after reaching a maximum. Our analysis also shows that there is potential to exploit the harmonic nature of the returns process to earn abnormal profits. Extending our analysis to the low energy states of a quantum harmonic oscillator is also suggested.

Suggested Citation

  • Ataullah, Ali & Tippett, Mark, 2007. "Equity prices as a simple harmonic oscillator with noise," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 382(2), pages 557-564.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:382:y:2007:i:2:p:557-564
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2007.04.010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437107003731
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2007.04.010?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Roehner,Bertrand M., 2002. "Patterns of Speculation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521802635, October.
    2. Shleifer, Andrei, 2000. "Inefficient Markets: An Introduction to Behavioral Finance," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198292272.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stanley, H. Eugene & Plerou, Vasiliki & Gabaix, Xavier, 2008. "A statistical physics view of financial fluctuations: Evidence for scaling and universality," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(15), pages 3967-3981.
    2. Stanley, H.E. & Gabaix, Xavier & Gopikrishnan, Parameswaran & Plerou, Vasiliki, 2007. "Economic fluctuations and statistical physics: Quantifying extremely rare and less rare events in finance," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 382(1), pages 286-301.
    3. Christiane Goodfellow & Dirk Schiereck & Steffen Wippler, 2013. "Are behavioural finance equity funds a superior investment? A note on fund performance and market efficiency," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 14(2), pages 111-119, April.
    4. Peter Richmond & Bertrand M. Roehner, 2016. "Property bubble in Hong Kong: A predicted decade-long slump (2016-2025)," Papers 1608.03985, arXiv.org.
    5. Kubin, Ingrid & Zörner, Thomas O. & Gardini, Laura & Commendatore, Pasquale, 2019. "A credit cycle model with market sentiments," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 159-174.
    6. David G. McMillan, 2010. "Present Value Model, Bubbles and Returns Predictability: Sector‐Level Evidence," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(5‐6), pages 668-686, June.
    7. Berna Karali & Scott H. Irwin & Olga Isengildina‐Massa, 2020. "Supply Fundamentals and Grain Futures Price Movements," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(2), pages 548-568, March.
    8. David Peón & Anxo Calvo, 2012. "Using Behavioral Economics to Analyze Credit Policies in the Banking Industry," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 145-160.
    9. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    10. Ahmad Fraz & Arshad Hassan, 2017. "Stock Price Synchronicity and Information Environment," Business & Economic Review, Institute of Management Sciences, Peshawar, Pakistan, vol. 9(4), pages 213-232, December.
    11. Stefano DellaVigna, 2009. "Psychology and Economics: Evidence from the Field," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 315-372, June.
    12. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H. & Wagener, Florian O. O., 2005. "Evolutionary dynamics in markets with many trader types," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 7-42, February.
    13. Alexandros Kontonikas & Alexandros Kostakis, 2013. "On Monetary Policy and Stock Market Anomalies," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(7-8), pages 1009-1042, September.
    14. Abdul Hamid Habbe, 2017. "Estimation Error of Earnings Information: A Test of Representativeness and Anchoring-adjustment Heuristic," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 224-233.
    15. Gou, Chengling & Guo, Xiaoqian & Chen, Fang, 2008. "Study on system dynamics of evolutionary mix-game models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(25), pages 6353-6359.
    16. Olivier Blanchard, 2000. "What Do We Know about Macroeconomics that Fisher and Wicksell Did Not?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(4), pages 1375-1409.
    17. Geoffrey Poitras & John Heaney, 2015. "Classical Ergodicity and Modern Portfolio Theory," Post-Print hal-03680380, HAL.
    18. Bertrand M. Roehner, 2004. "Stock markets are not what we think they are: the key roles of cross-ownership and corporate treasury stock," Papers cond-mat/0406704, arXiv.org.
    19. Choi, Jaehyung, 2012. "Spontaneous symmetry breaking of arbitrage," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(11), pages 3206-3218.
    20. Heitor Almeida & Sang Yong Park & Marti Subrahmanyam & Daniel Wolfenzon, 2009. "The Structure and Formation of Business Groups: Evidence from Korean Chaebols," NBER Working Papers 14983, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:382:y:2007:i:2:p:557-564. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.