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A new analysis of the effects of the Asian crisis of 1997 on emergent markets

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  • Mariani, M.C.
  • Liu, Y.

Abstract

This work is devoted to the study of the Asian crisis of 1997, and its consequences on emerging markets. We have done so by means of a phase transition model. We have analyzed the crashes on leading indices of Hong Kong (HSI), Turkey (XU100), Mexico (MMX), Brazil (BOVESPA) and Argentina (MERVAL). We were able to obtain optimum values for the critical date, corresponding to the most probable date of the crash. The estimation of the critical date was excellent except for the MERVAL index; this improvement is due to a previous analysis of the parameters involved. We only used data from before the true crash date in order to obtain the predicted critical date. This article's conclusions are largely obtained via ad hoc empirical methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariani, M.C. & Liu, Y., 2007. "A new analysis of the effects of the Asian crisis of 1997 on emergent markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 380(C), pages 307-316.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:380:y:2007:i:c:p:307-316
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2007.02.103
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    1. Stanley, H.E. & Afanasyev, V. & Amaral, L.A.N. & Buldyrev, S.V. & Goldberger, A.L. & Havlin, S. & Leschhorn, H. & Maass, P. & Mantegna, R.N. & Peng, C.-K. & Prince, P.A. & Salinger, M.A. & Stanley, M., 1996. "Anomalous fluctuations in the dynamics of complex systems: from DNA and physiology to econophysics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 224(1), pages 302-321.
    2. Sornette, Didier & Johansen, Anders, 1997. "Large financial crashes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 245(3), pages 411-422.
    3. Mantegna,Rosario N. & Stanley,H. Eugene, 2007. "Introduction to Econophysics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521039871, October.
    4. M. G. Figueroa & M. C. Mariani & M. B. Ferraro, 2003. "The Effects of the Asian Crisis of 1997 on Emergent Markets Through a Critical Phenomena Model," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(06), pages 605-612.
    5. Stanley, H.E & Amaral, L.A.N & Canning, D & Gopikrishnan, P & Lee, Y & Liu, Y, 1999. "Econophysics: Can physicists contribute to the science of economics?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 269(1), pages 156-169.
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    Cited by:

    1. Maria Pia Beccar Varela & Francis Biney & Ionut Florescu, 2015. "Long correlations and fractional difference analysis applied to the study of memory effects in high-frequency (tick) data," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(8), pages 1365-1374, August.
    2. Mariani, M.C. & Bezdek, P. & Serpa, L. & Florescu, I., 2011. "Ising type models applied to Geophysics and high frequency market data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(23), pages 4396-4402.
    3. Zitis, Pavlos I. & Contoyiannis, Yiannis & Potirakis, Stelios M., 2022. "Critical dynamics related to a recent Bitcoin crash," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    4. Mariani, M.C. & Florescu, I. & SenGupta, I. & Beccar Varela, M.P. & Bezdek, P. & Serpa, L., 2013. "Lévy models and scale invariance properties applied to Geophysics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(4), pages 824-839.

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