IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v346y2005i3p529-560.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bubble, critical zone and the crash of Royal Ahold

Author

Listed:
  • Broekstra, Gerrit
  • Sornette, Didier
  • Zhou, Wei-Xing

Abstract

We find that the seed of the 2002/03 crisis of the Dutch supermarket giant AHOLD was planted in 1996. We have adapted Weidlich's theory of opinion formation to describe the formation of buy or sell decisions among investors, based on a competition between the mechanisms of herding and of personal opinion opposing the herd. Using our identification of a “critical zone” starting in mid-1997 describing the maturation of a systemic instability forewarning of an inevitable crash fueled by raising expectations of investors to maintain strong herding pressures, our study opens the possibility of developing early warning signals but also suggests to top management ways of dealing with the coming crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Broekstra, Gerrit & Sornette, Didier & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2005. "Bubble, critical zone and the crash of Royal Ahold," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 346(3), pages 529-560.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:346:y:2005:i:3:p:529-560
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2004.08.021
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437104011082
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2004.08.021?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shleifer, Andrei, 2000. "Inefficient Markets: An Introduction to Behavioral Finance," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198292272.
    2. Levy, Haim & Levy, Moshe & Solomon, Sorin, 2000. "Microscopic Simulation of Financial Markets," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780124458901.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2008. "Analysis of the real estate market in Las Vegas: Bubble, seasonal patterns, and prediction of the CSW indices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(1), pages 243-260.
    2. V. I. Yukalov & D. Sornette & E. P. Yukalova, 2007. "Nonlinear Dynamical Model of Regime Switching Between Conventions and Business Cycles," Papers nlin/0701014, arXiv.org.
    3. Xing, Dun-Zhong & Li, Hai-Feng & Li, Jiang-Cheng & Long, Chao, 2021. "Forecasting price of financial market crash via a new nonlinear potential GARCH model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 566(C).
    4. Yukalov, V.I. & Sornette, D. & Yukalova, E.P., 2009. "Nonlinear dynamical model of regime switching between conventions and business cycles," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 70(1-2), pages 206-230, May.
    5. Phillips, Emir & Desmoulins-Lebeault, Francois, 2018. "An FSB board member can better align corporate governance with SIFI sustainability," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 112-120.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. A. Corcos & J-P Eckmann & A. Malaspinas & Y. Malevergne & D. Sornette, 2002. "Imitation and contrarian behaviour: hyperbolic bubbles, crashes and chaos," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 264-281.
    2. Stanley, H.E. & Gabaix, Xavier & Gopikrishnan, Parameswaran & Plerou, Vasiliki, 2007. "Economic fluctuations and statistical physics: Quantifying extremely rare and less rare events in finance," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 382(1), pages 286-301.
    3. Stanley, H. Eugene & Plerou, Vasiliki & Gabaix, Xavier, 2008. "A statistical physics view of financial fluctuations: Evidence for scaling and universality," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(15), pages 3967-3981.
    4. Xavier Gabaix & Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Vasiliki Plerou & H. Eugene Stanley, 2006. "Institutional Investors and Stock Market Volatility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(2), pages 461-504.
    5. Edward Tsang & Richard Olsen & Shaimaa Masry, 2012. "A formalization of double auction market dynamics," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(7), pages 981-988, October.
    6. Mario A Bertella & Felipe R Pires & Henio H A Rego & Jonathas N Silva & Irena Vodenska & H Eugene Stanley, 2017. "Confidence and self-attribution bias in an artificial stock market," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(2), pages 1-20, February.
    7. Christiane Goodfellow & Dirk Schiereck & Steffen Wippler, 2013. "Are behavioural finance equity funds a superior investment? A note on fund performance and market efficiency," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 14(2), pages 111-119, April.
    8. R. Andergassen, 2003. "Rational destabilising speculation and the riding of bubbles," Working Papers 475, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    9. Kubin, Ingrid & Zörner, Thomas O. & Gardini, Laura & Commendatore, Pasquale, 2019. "A credit cycle model with market sentiments," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 159-174.
    10. Ariane Szafarz, 2015. "Market Efficiency and Crises:Don’t Throw the Baby out with the Bathwater," Bankers, Markets & Investors, ESKA Publishing, issue 139, pages 20-26, November-.
    11. David G. McMillan, 2010. "Present Value Model, Bubbles and Returns Predictability: Sector‐Level Evidence," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(5‐6), pages 668-686, June.
    12. Berna Karali & Scott H. Irwin & Olga Isengildina‐Massa, 2020. "Supply Fundamentals and Grain Futures Price Movements," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(2), pages 548-568, March.
    13. Rodríguez, Mª Araceli, 2005. "Nueva Evidencia Empírica sobre las Turbulencias Cambiarias de la Peseta Española. 1989-1998/New Evidence about Turbulences on the Spanish Peseta. 1989-1998s," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 23, pages 207-230, Abril.
    14. Lovric, M. & Kaymak, U. & Spronk, J., 2008. "A Conceptual Model of Investor Behavior," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2008-030-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    15. David Peón & Anxo Calvo, 2012. "Using Behavioral Economics to Analyze Credit Policies in the Banking Industry," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 145-160.
    16. Kumar, Alok, 2007. "Do the diversification choices of individual investors influence stock returns?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 362-390, November.
    17. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    18. Mohamed KHALED, 2018. "apport du biais d’excès de confiance à l’explication de la volatilité des rendements du marché des actions algérien," Journal of Academic Finance, RED research unit, university of Gabes, Tunisia, vol. 9(2), pages 36-46, December.
    19. Randall Morck & Lloyd Steier, 2005. "The Global History of Corporate Governance: An Introduction," NBER Chapters, in: A History of Corporate Governance around the World: Family Business Groups to Professional Managers, pages 1-64, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Tanya Araújo & Miguel St. Aubyn, 2008. "Education, Neighborhood Effects And Growth: An Agent-Based Model Approach," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(01), pages 99-117.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:346:y:2005:i:3:p:529-560. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.