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Modeling of waiting times and price changes in currency exchange data

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  • Repetowicz, Przemysław
  • Richmond, Peter

Abstract

A theory which describes the share price evolution at financial markets as a continuous-time random walk (Physica A 287 (2000) 468, Physica A 314 (2002) 749, Eur. Phys. J. B 27 (2002) 273, Physica A 376 (2000) 284) has been generalized in order to take into account the dependence of waiting times t on price returns x. A joint probability density function (pdf) φX,T(x,t) which uses the concept of a Lévy stable distribution is worked out. The theory is fitted to high-frequency US $/Japanese Yen exchange rate and low-frequency 19th century Irish stock data. The theory has been fitted both to price return and to waiting time data and the adherence to data, in terms of the χ2 test statistic, has been improved when compared to the old theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Repetowicz, Przemysław & Richmond, Peter, 2004. "Modeling of waiting times and price changes in currency exchange data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 343(C), pages 677-693.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:343:y:2004:i:c:p:677-693
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2004.06.162
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Schumer, Rina & Baeumer, Boris & Meerschaert, Mark M., 2011. "Extremal behavior of a coupled continuous time random walk," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(3), pages 505-511.

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