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Electoral surveys’ influence on the voting processes: a cellular automata model

Author

Listed:
  • Alves, S.G
  • Oliveira Neto, N.M
  • Martins, M.L

Abstract

Nowadays, in societies threatened by atomization, selfishness, short-term thinking, and alienation from political life, there is a renewed debate about classical questions concerning the quality of democratic decision making. In this work a cellular automata model for the dynamics of free elections, based on the social impact theory is proposed. By using computer simulations, power-law distributions for the size of electoral clusters and decision time have been obtained. The major role of broadcasted electoral surveys in guiding opinion formation and stabilizing the “status quo” was demonstrated. Furthermore, it was shown that in societies where these surveys are manipulated within the universally accepted statistical error bars, even a majoritary opposition could be hindered from reaching power through the electoral path.

Suggested Citation

  • Alves, S.G & Oliveira Neto, N.M & Martins, M.L, 2002. "Electoral surveys’ influence on the voting processes: a cellular automata model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 316(1), pages 601-614.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:316:y:2002:i:1:p:601-614
    DOI: 10.1016/S0378-4371(02)01208-6
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Maia, H.P. & Ferreira, S.C. & Martins, M.L., 2021. "Adaptive network approach for emergence of societal bubbles," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 572(C).
    2. Itzhak Benenson & Erez Hatna & Ehud Or, 2009. "From Schelling to Spatially Explicit Modeling of Urban Ethnic and Economic Residential Dynamics," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 37(4), pages 463-497, May.
    3. Campos, Diógenes, 2011. "A thermodynamic-like characterization of Colombia’s presidential elections in 2010, and a comparison with other Latin American countries," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(10), pages 1779-1790.

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