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More stylized facts of financial markets: leverage effect and downside correlations

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  • Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe
  • Potters, Marc

Abstract

We discuss two more universal features of stock markets: the so-called leverage effect (a negative correlation between past returns and future volatility), and the increased downside correlations. For individual stocks, the leverage correlation can be rationalized in terms of a new ‘retarded’ model which interpolates between a purely additive and a purely multiplicative stochastic process. For stock indices a specific market panic phenomenon seems to be necessary to account for the observed amplitude of the effect. As for the increase of correlations in highly volatile periods, we investigate how much of this effect can be explained within a simple non-Gaussian one-factor description with time independent correlations. In particular, this one-factor model can explain the level and asymmetry of empirical exceedance correlations, which reflects the fat-tailed and negatively skewed distribution of market returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe & Potters, Marc, 2001. "More stylized facts of financial markets: leverage effect and downside correlations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 299(1), pages 60-70.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:299:y:2001:i:1:p:60-70
    DOI: 10.1016/S0378-4371(01)00282-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 1999. "International Asset Allocation with Time-Varying Correlations," NBER Working Papers 7056, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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