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Asian sovereign debt and country risk

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  • Johansson, Anders C.

Abstract

This paper analyzes systematic risk of sovereign bonds in four East Asian countries: China, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. A bivariate stochastic volatility model that allows for time-varying correlation is estimated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. The volatilities and correlation are then used to calculate the time-varying betas. The results show that country-specific systematic risk in Asian sovereign bonds varies over time. When adjusting for inherent exchange rate risk, the pattern of systematic risk is similar, even though the level is generally lower. The findings have important implications for international portfolio managers that invest in emerging sovereign bonds and those who need benchmark instruments to analyze risk in assets such as corporate bonds in the emerging Asian financial markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Johansson, Anders C., 2010. "Asian sovereign debt and country risk," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 335-350, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:18:y:2010:i:4:p:335-350
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    2. Liu, Chang & Sun, Xiaolei & Chen, Jianming & Li, Jianping, 2016. "Statistical properties of country risk ratings under oil price volatility: Evidence from selected oil-exporting countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 234-245.
    3. Johansson, Anders C., 2010. "Stock and Bond Relationships in Asia," Working Paper Series 2010-14, Stockholm School of Economics, China Economic Research Center.
    4. Amir Saadaoui & Younes Boujelbene, 2016. "Volatility Transmission between Dow Jones Stock Index and Emerging Bond Index," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 12(2), pages 194-216, April.
    5. Lu, Jin-Ray & Lee, Pei-Hsuan & Chuang, I-Yuan, 2011. "Estimation of oil firm's systematic risk via composite time-varying models," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 81(11), pages 2389-2399.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asia Sovereign bonds Systematic risk Stochastic volatility Markov Chain Monte Carlo;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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