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A real options perspective on the future of the Euro

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  • Alvarez, Fernando
  • Dixit, Avinash

Abstract

A break-up of the Eurozone is no longer regarded as implausible. This will be a costly and irreversible decision in conditions of continuing uncertainty; therefore it is amenable to analysis in the real options framework. We do so by solving as an n-dimensional optimal stopping problem with country-specific shocks and “convergence” of member economies. We compare a complete break-up with individual country departures. In calibrated solutions for a symmetric case we find a non-negligible but small option value. Furthermore, we find a new theoretical result on the non-monotonicity of abandonment threshold with respect to volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Alvarez, Fernando & Dixit, Avinash, 2014. "A real options perspective on the future of the Euro," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 78-109.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:61:y:2014:i:c:p:78-109
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2013.11.007
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    2. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Kobielarz, M.L. & Uras, R.B., 2015. "Sovereign Debt, Bail-Outs and Contagion in a Monetary Union," Discussion Paper 2015-018, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    3. Garcia-Hiernaux, Alfredo & Gonzalez-Perez, Maria T. & Guerrero, David E., 2023. "Eurozone prices: A tale of convergence and divergence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    4. Gilchrist, Simon & Schoenle, Raphael & Sim, Jae & Zakrajšek, Egon, 2023. "Financial heterogeneity and monetary union," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 21-40.
    5. Kobielarz, Michal, 2018. "The economics of monetary unions," Other publications TiSEM b0293536-68ec-4905-bffd-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Paolo Canofari & Alessandro Ponte, 2018. "Chinese and European Financial Systems: Instability Drivers and Contagion Channels," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 24(4), pages 311-324, November.
    7. Alfredo García Hiernaux & David Esteban Guerrero Burbano, 2015. "Price-Level Convergence in the Eurozone," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2015-05, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    8. Link, Thomas, 2019. "Optimal timing of calling in large-denomination banknotes under natural rate uncertainty," DICE Discussion Papers 327, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).

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