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Do firm expectations respond to monetary policy announcements?

Author

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  • Di Pace, Federico
  • Mangiante, Giacomo
  • Masolo, Riccardo M.

Abstract

This paper investigates whether UK firms’ price growth expectations respond to the Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy announcements and explores the underlying mechanism. Using microdata from the UK Decision Maker Panel survey, we isolate the exogenous component of the monetary policy decisions by comparing firms’ responses filed before and after BoE announcements. Guided by a model of dispersed information, our analysis suggests that firms respond to monetary policy announcements but are, overall, not as informed and sophisticated as financial market participants. Firms’ price expectations respond to actual interest rate changes, as well as to bank rate changes purged from their systematic component, but not to high-frequency surprises. The left tail of their expected price change distribution is particularly sensitive to monetary policy announcements. Furthermore, we unveil significant non-linear effects, with changes in interest rates of 50 basis points being mostly responsible for revisions in expectations. This implies that the recent tightening cycle was effective in shifting firms’ expectations primarily at its peak when a sequence of consecutive large rate hikes was implemented. We also show that UK news coverage of the BoE’s activities increases following policy rate changes, highlighting the media’s crucial role in shaping public expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Di Pace, Federico & Mangiante, Giacomo & Masolo, Riccardo M., 2025. "Do firm expectations respond to monetary policy announcements?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:149:y:2025:i:c:s0304393224001016
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103648
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    2. Refet S Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
    3. Lamla, Michael J. & Vinogradov, Dmitri V., 2019. "Central bank announcements: Big news for little people?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 21-38.
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    Cited by:

    1. Valentina Colombo & Alessia Paccagnini, 2024. "Uncertainty and the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet Monetary Policy," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def131, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    2. Russell Davidson & Andrea Monticini, 2023. "Bootstrap Performance with Heteroskedasticity," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def130, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    3. Federico Di Pace & Giacomo Mangiante & Riccardo Masolo, 2024. "Monetary policy rules: the market’s view," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def137, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy announcements; Firm expectations; Monetary policy shocks; Survey data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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