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Deep learning for solving dynamic economic models

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  • Maliar, Lilia
  • Maliar, Serguei
  • Winant, Pablo

Abstract

We introduce a unified deep learning method that solves dynamic economic models by casting them into nonlinear regression equations. We derive such equations for three fundamental objects of economic dynamics – lifetime reward functions, Bellman equations and Euler equations. We estimate the decision functions on simulated data using a stochastic gradient descent method. We introduce an all-in-one integration operator that facilitates approximation of high-dimensional integrals. We use neural networks to perform model reduction and to handle multicollinearity. Our deep learning method is tractable in large-scale problems, e.g., Krusell and Smith (1998). We provide a TensorFlow code that accommodates a variety of applications.

Suggested Citation

  • Maliar, Lilia & Maliar, Serguei & Winant, Pablo, 2021. "Deep learning for solving dynamic economic models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 76-101.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:122:y:2021:i:c:p:76-101
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2021.07.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Artificial intelligence; Machine learning; Deep learning; Neural network; Stochastic gradient; Dynamic models; Model reduction; Dynamic programming; Bellman equation; Euler equation; Value functio;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • C65 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • C88 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Other Computer Software
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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