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From general state-space to VARMAX models

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  • Casals, J.
  • García-Hiernaux, A.
  • Jerez, M.

Abstract

We propose two new algorithms to go from any state-space model to an output equivalent and invertible Vector AutoRegressive Moving Average model with eXogenous regressors (VARMAX). As the literature shows how to do the inverse transformation, these results imply that both representations, state-space and VARMAX, are equally general and freely interchangeable. These algorithms are useful to solve three practical problems: (i) discussing the identifiability of a state-space model, (ii) performing its diagnostic checking, and (iii) calibrating its parameters so that it realizes, exactly or approximately, a given reduced-form VARMAX. These applications are illustrated by means of practical examples with real data.

Suggested Citation

  • Casals, J. & García-Hiernaux, A. & Jerez, M., 2012. "From general state-space to VARMAX models," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 82(5), pages 924-936.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:82:y:2012:i:5:p:924-936
    DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2012.01.001
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    1. Melard, Guy & Roy, Roch & Saidi, Abdessamad, 2006. "Exact maximum likelihood estimation of structured or unit root multivariate time series models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(11), pages 2958-2986, July.
    2. Casals, Jose & Sotoca, Sonia & Jerez, Miguel, 1999. "A fast and stable method to compute the likelihood of time invariant state-space models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 329-337, December.
    3. Bujosa, Marcos & Garcia-Ferrer, Antonio & Young, Peter C., 2007. "Linear dynamic harmonic regression," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 999-1024, October.
    4. Lutkepohl, Helmut & Poskitt, D S, 1996. "Specification of Echelon-Form VARMA Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 69-79, January.
    5. Casals J. & Jerez M. & Sotoca S., 2002. "An Exact Multivariate Model-Based Structural Decomposition," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 553-564, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eidenberger, Judith & Neudorfer, Benjamin & Sigmund, Michael & Stein, Ingrid, 2014. "What predicts financial (in)stability? A Bayesian approach," Discussion Papers 36/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.

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