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Common trends and generalized purchasing power parity

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  • Enders, Walter
  • Hurn, Stan

Abstract

The theory of purchasing power parity (PPP) has worked poorly during the post-Bretton Woods period. We generalize the concept of PPP (called generalized-PPP, or G-PPP) and posit an equilibrium relationship among groups of real exchange rates. The basic tenants of G-PPP are that real fundamental macroeconomic shocks tend to be non-stationary so that the real exchange rates themselves will tend to be non-stationary. Although bilateral exchange rates are non-stationary, they will be cointegrated if the vector of stochastically trending variables has reduced rank. G-PPP will hold within the domain of a currency area since the individual nations will experience a set of common real macroeconomic shocks. Using data from the industrialized countries during the post-Bretton Woods period, we show that G-PPP holds for various groupings of nations. We estimate the long-run equilibrium relationships among the real exchange rates and the short-run dynamics concerning the international transmission of real disturbances. An interesting finding is that G-PPP does not hold among the set of major European nations. The direst implication is that such nations do not constitute the domain of a currency area.

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  • Enders, Walter & Hurn, Stan, 1997. "Common trends and generalized purchasing power parity," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 437-443.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:43:y:1997:i:3:p:437-443
    DOI: 10.1016/S0378-4754(97)00029-3
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    2. de Truchis, Gilles & Keddad, Benjamin, 2013. "Southeast Asian monetary integration: New evidences from fractional cointegration of real exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 394-412.
    3. Changmo AHN & Hong‐Bum KIM & Dongkoo CHANG, 2006. "Is East Asia Fit For An Optimum Currency Area? An Assessment Of The Economic Feasibility Of A Higher Degree Of Monetary Cooperation In East Asia," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 44(3), pages 288-305, September.
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    5. Ephrem Habtemichael Redda & Paul-Francois Muzindutsi, 2021. "Monetary Union Feasibility in the East African Community: Evidence from GPPP," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 11(6), pages 9-16.
    6. EPHREM HABTEMICHAEL REDDA & Paul-Francious Muzindusti, 2017. "Does SADC constitute an optimum currency area? Evidence from generalised purchasing power parity," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 4807771, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
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    8. Sergio Da Silva & Leandro Stocco & J. Anchieta Neves, 2008. "Is Mercosur an optimum currency area? An assessment using generalized purchasing power parity," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(29), pages 1-13.
    9. Neves, J. Anchieta & Stocco, Leandro & Da Silva, Sergio, 2007. "Is Mercosur an optimum currency area?," MPRA Paper 2758, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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