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Consistent asset modelling with random coefficients and switches between regimes

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  • Wolf, Felix L.
  • Deelstra, Griselda
  • Grzelak, Lech A.

Abstract

We explore a stochastic model that enables capturing external influences in two specific ways. The model allows for the expression of uncertainty in the parametrisation of the stochastic dynamics and incorporates patterns to account for different behaviours across various times or regimes. To establish our framework, we initially construct a model with random parameters, where the switching between regimes can be dictated either by random variables or deterministically. Such a model is highly interpretable. We further ensure mathematical consistency by demonstrating that the framework can be elegantly expressed through local volatility models taking the form of standard jump diffusions. Additionally, we consider a Markov-modulated approach for the switching between regimes characterised by random parameters. For all considered models, we derive characteristic functions, providing a versatile tool with wide-ranging applications. In a numerical experiment, we apply the framework to the financial problem of option pricing. The impact of parameter uncertainty is analysed in a two-regime model, where the asset process switches between periods of high and low volatility imbued with high and low uncertainty, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolf, Felix L. & Deelstra, Griselda & Grzelak, Lech A., 2024. "Consistent asset modelling with random coefficients and switches between regimes," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 223(C), pages 65-85.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:223:y:2024:i:c:p:65-85
    DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2024.03.021
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lech A. Grzelak, 2022. "Randomization of Short-Rate Models, Analytic Pricing and Flexibility in Controlling Implied Volatilities," Papers 2211.05014, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    2. Merton, Robert C., 1976. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 125-144.
    3. Robert J. Elliott & Leunglung Chan & Tak Kuen Siu, 2005. "Option pricing and Esscher transform under regime switching," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 423-432, October.
    4. John Buffington & Robert J. Elliott, 2002. "American Options With Regime Switching," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(05), pages 497-514.
    5. Lech A. Grzelak, 2022. "On Randomization of Affine Diffusion Processes with Application to Pricing of Options on VIX and S&P 500," Papers 2208.12518, arXiv.org.
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