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Stakeholder perceptions of ecosystem service declines in Milne Bay, Papua New Guinea: Is human population a more critical driver than climate change?

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  • Butler, J.R.A.
  • Skewes, T.
  • Mitchell, D.
  • Pontio, M.
  • Hills, T.

Abstract

Milne Bay Province (MBP) in Papua New Guinea is a priority seascape in the Coral Triangle marine biodiversity hotspot. Goal 4 of the Coral Triangle Initiative on Coral Reefs, Fisheries and Food Security promotes adaptation planning for small island ecosystems and communities threatened by climate change, but information to identify vulnerable islands and priority interventions is limited. This study adapted the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) framework in MBP with regional stakeholders to project trends in harvested or cultivated ‘provisioning’ ecosystem goods and services (EGS), human well-being, drivers of change and necessary management strategies, based on their tacit knowledge. In 2010 five island subregions which are susceptible to food insecurity were assessed. Workshop participants identified freshwater, garden food crops, coral, bêche-de-mer, reef fish and sharks as the most important EGS in all subregions. Terrestrial EGS contributed 43% of aggregated ecosystem-derived well-being, and marine EGS 57%. By 2030 the overall condition of EGS was projected to decline by >50%. The primary driver in all subregions was human population growth, and climate change impacts were predicted in only two subregions. Improved garden and agricultural productivity and population control were the highest ranked management strategies. Population relocation was also prioritised for two subregions where human carrying capacities may soon be exceeded. Although none of the strategies addressed climate change directly, all could yield climate adaptation and marine conservation co-benefits by enhancing ecosystem-based adaptation and community adaptive capacity. It is suggested that there is a 20–30 year ‘adaptation window’ in which to address population growth, which otherwise will continue to erode the capacity of communities and ecosystems to cope with potentially extreme climate impacts after mid-century.

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  • Butler, J.R.A. & Skewes, T. & Mitchell, D. & Pontio, M. & Hills, T., 2014. "Stakeholder perceptions of ecosystem service declines in Milne Bay, Papua New Guinea: Is human population a more critical driver than climate change?," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-13.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:marpol:v:46:y:2014:i:c:p:1-13
    DOI: 10.1016/j.marpol.2013.12.011
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    Cited by:

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    2. Balzan, Mario V & Caruana, Julio & Zammit, Annrica, 2018. "Assessing the capacity and flow of ecosystem services in multifunctional landscapes: Evidence of a rural-urban gradient in a Mediterranean small island state," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 711-725.
    3. Viliamu Iese & Anthony S. Kiem & Azarel Mariner & Philip Malsale & Tile Tofaeono & Dewi G.C. Kirono & Vanessa Round & Craig Heady & Robson Tigona & Filipe Veisa & Kisolel Posanau & Faapisa Aiono & Ali, 2021. "Historical and future drought impacts in the Pacific islands and atolls," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-24, May.
    4. Sara Busilacchi & James R. A. Butler & Ingrid Van Putten & Yiheyis Maru & Joseph Posu, 2018. "Asymmetrical Development across Transboundary Regions: The Case of the Torres Strait Treaty Region (Australia and Papua New Guinea)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-18, November.
    5. Stacy‐ann Robinson, 2020. "Climate change adaptation in SIDS: A systematic review of the literature pre and post the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(4), July.
    6. Foran, Tira & Butler, James R.A. & Williams, Liana J. & Wanjura, Wolf J. & Hall, Andy & Carter, Lucy & Carberry, Peter S., 2014. "Taking Complexity in Food Systems Seriously: An Interdisciplinary Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 85-101.

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