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Population trends and desertification risk in a Mediterranean region, 1861-2017

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  • Benassi, Federico
  • Cividino, Sirio
  • Cudlin, Pavel
  • Alhuseen, Ahmed
  • Lamonica, Giuseppe Ricciardo
  • Salvati, Luca

Abstract

The relationship between population dynamics and desertification risk in advanced economies is increasingly dependent on the mutual interplay of socioeconomic forces at regional and local scales. Assuming that specific, long-term demographic dynamics are associated with a given level of desertification risk, the present study investigates population trends between 1861 and 2017 and the spatial linkage with the level of desertification risk in Southern Italy, a European region where more than 20 % of land is exposed to degradation processes. Areas classified at the highest risk of desertification experienced intense population growth between 1951 and 1981. Reflecting the latest stage of the first demographic transition in Italy, such dynamics have caused an increasing human pressure on coastal districts, peri-urban areas and flat rural land. Since the early 1980s, population growth was less intense and more heterogeneous over space. Such dynamics led to a discontinuous urban expansion and the formation of a ‘third space’ – neither urban nor rural – with a consequent increase in the rate of land take. These outcomes, typical of the early stage of the second demographic transition, were mostly uncorrelated with the level of desertification risk. The spatial association between population dynamics and desertification risk characteristic of the first demographic transition in Southern Italy outlines the importance of regional developmental policies aimed at rebalancing territorial disparities for land degradation mitigation in the Mediterranean region.

Suggested Citation

  • Benassi, Federico & Cividino, Sirio & Cudlin, Pavel & Alhuseen, Ahmed & Lamonica, Giuseppe Ricciardo & Salvati, Luca, 2020. "Population trends and desertification risk in a Mediterranean region, 1861-2017," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:95:y:2020:i:c:s0264837719314735
    DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.104626
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    2. Salvati, Luca, 2023. "Two wrongs don't make a right: A multi-step decomposition of latent dimensions of sustainable development and desertification risk in Italy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    3. Federico Benassi & Marica D'Elia & Francesca Petrei, 2021. "The “meso” dimension of territorial capital: Evidence from Italy," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 159-175, February.
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    5. Irene Petrosillo & Donatella Valente & Christian Mulder & Bai-Lian Li & K. Bruce Jones & Giovanni Zurlini, 2021. "The Resilient Recurrent Behavior of Mediterranean Semi-Arid Complex Adaptive Landscapes," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-18, March.
    6. Gianluca Egidi & Giovanni Quaranta & Luca Salvati & Rosanna Salvia & Gimenez Morera Antonio, 2021. "Investigating density-dependent patterns of population growth in Southern Italy, 1861–2019," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 11-30, April.

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