Between suburbanisation and re-urbanisation: revisiting the urban life cycle in a Mediterranean compact city

The redistribution of population over larger regions progressively further away from the dense core seems to be the new feature of the (originally compact) Mediterranean cities. With the aim of better understanding the nature of the urban transition taking place in these cities, we studied the phenomenon of population redistribution in Athens Metropolitan Area (AMA) in light of the city’s Urban Life Cycle (ULC). The research was carried out for a time frame of 60 years (1951–2011) using spatial analysis, correlation and multivariate statistics. Results reveal a phase of compact urban expansion occurring in the AMA until 1991, reflected in suburbanisation processes in the immediate proximity of the urban agglomeration. In the following period, the analysis showed signs of a period of transition difficult to interpret within the approach adopted by the ULC theory. A number of municipalities of the urban area experienced positive rates of population growth after decades of decline, while municipalities of the agglomeration and ring remain relatively stable. Altogether, these results can be interpreted as signs of a potential future re-urbanisation. The analysis performed provides insights on the debate over the future of Mediterranean cities, while demonstrating the advantages of adopting a multi-scale assessment methodology for identifying urban transitions.