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Scenario farmland protection zoning based on production potential: A case study in China

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  • Liu, Yilun
  • Liu, Luo
  • Zhu, A-Xing
  • Lao, Chunhua
  • Hu, Guohua
  • Hu, Yueming

Abstract

Establishing farmland protection areas is an important measure for developing countries to protect limited farmland resources and guarantee food security. The general approaches lack the ability to simulate the farmlands’ production potential under different scenarios. This paper proposes a modified farmland protection zoning framework to demarcate farmland protection by coupling the Agro-Ecological Zone (AEZ) model with a state-of-the-art farmland protection zoning framework. The modified zoning framework was applied to China, a typical fast developing country. The results indicated that the average potential production of the entire country would increase by 2.96 % in the coming decade if the irrigation efficiency criteria of 55 % established by the National Program for Agricultural Water Conservation (2012–2020) can be fulfilled. Furthermore, the farmland protection area could also be reduced by 2.91 % (2.96 million ha) while the total production potential of the protected areas would remain unchanged. This study contributes two main aspects: (1) The AEZ model was used as a replacement for the general land-use suitability analysis (LUSA) or multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) based farmland assessment models in a farmland zoning framework, which can accurately assess the production potential of the farmland protection demarcation. (2) This farmland protection zoning approach can analyze and simulate a wide range of scenarios on the effect of environmental factors (climate, soil, terrain, etc.) and human production factors (irrigation condition, cropping system, etc.).

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  • Liu, Yilun & Liu, Luo & Zhu, A-Xing & Lao, Chunhua & Hu, Guohua & Hu, Yueming, 2020. "Scenario farmland protection zoning based on production potential: A case study in China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:95:y:2020:i:c:s0264837719300572
    DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.104581
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Songze Wu & Dongyan Wang, 2023. "Storing Grain in the Land: The Gestation, Delineation Framework, and Case of the Two Zones Policy in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-25, April.
    3. Wu, Chen-Fa & Wang, Hsiao-Hsuan & Chen, Szu-Hung & Trac, Luu Van Thong, 2024. "Assessing the efficiency of bird habitat conservation strategies in farmland ecosystems," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 492(C).
    4. Zhongqi Deng & Qianyu Zhao & Helen X. H. Bao, 2020. "The Impact of Urbanization on Farmland Productivity: Implications for China’s Requisition–Compensation Balance of Farmland Policy," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-24, September.
    5. Tan, Kun & Zhao, Xiaoqing & Pu, Junwei & Li, Sinan & Li, Yuhao & Miao, Peipei & Wang, Qian, 2021. "Zoning regulation and development model for water and land resources in the Karst Mountainous Region of Southwest China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    6. Zhaoxia Guo & Qinqin Guo & Yujie Cai & Ge Wang, 2021. "Unraveling Risk Networks of Cultivated Land Protection: An Exploratory Stakeholder-Oriented Case Study in Xiliuhe Town, Hubei Province, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-26, November.
    7. Edgar Vladimir Gutiérrez Castorena & Gustavo Andrés Ramírez Gómez & Carlos Alberto Ortíz Solorio, 2023. "The Agricultural Potential of a Region with Semi-Dry, Warm and Temperate Subhumid Climate Diversity through Agroecological Zoning," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-18, June.
    8. Chen, Yanming & Yao, Mengru & Zhao, Qiqi & Chen, Zhenjie & Jiang, Penghui & Li, Manchun & Chen, Dong, 2021. "Delineation of a basic farmland protection zone based on spatial connectivity and comprehensive quality evaluation: A case study of Changsha City, China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    9. Liu, Yong & Zhao, Wei & Liao, Rong & Wang, Cheng, 2021. "Process analysis of inter-governmental negotiation in delineating permanent prime farmland around cities: The case of Chongqing, China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).

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