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Spatial heterogeneity and driving mechanisms of carbon emissions in urban expansion areas: A research framework coupled with patterns and functions

Author

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  • Feng, Xinhui
  • Wang, Sensen
  • Li, Yan
  • Yang, Jiayu
  • Lei, Kaige
  • Yuan, Weikang

Abstract

The substantial rise in carbon emissions caused by extensive global urbanization over the past four decades has been one of the key drivers of climate warming. To determine low-carbon and sustainable urban planning strategies, a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between the multidimensional characteristics of urban expansion and carbon emissions is crucial. Shortcomings, such as limitations on perspectives, methodologies, and spatial scales, remain in current global research. In this study, we proposed an innovative and comprehensive explanatory framework for urban expansion, coupled with patterns and functions, for the first time. Furthermore, this study utilized 338 prefecture-level cities in mainland China, along with multi-source geographic big data, machine-learning models, and Geodetector models, to empirically analyze the spatial heterogeneity and driving mechanisms of carbon emissions in urban expansion areas from 2010 to 2019. China was found to have experienced drastic and spatially unbalanced urban expansion dominated by edge and outlying expansion, with patches of infilling expansion. Regional disparities and differences in urban expansion planning created significant spatial heterogeneity in carbon emissions. Moreover, gross domestic product density had the largest positive effect on carbon emissions in urban expansion areas, while that of vegetation cover, population density, and road density were high during outlying expansion. Significant spatial heterogeneity was observed in the magnitude and direction of the influence of each urban functional indicator on carbon emissions during edge expansion. The impacts of public service facilities and residential densities on carbon emissions were enhanced by infilling expansion. Overall, this study systematically illustrates the theoretical and planning significance of urban expansion path selection for carbon emissions reduction at different developmental stages, supporting the formulation of sustainable urbanization schemes.

Suggested Citation

  • Feng, Xinhui & Wang, Sensen & Li, Yan & Yang, Jiayu & Lei, Kaige & Yuan, Weikang, 2024. "Spatial heterogeneity and driving mechanisms of carbon emissions in urban expansion areas: A research framework coupled with patterns and functions," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:143:y:2024:i:c:s0264837724001625
    DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2024.107209
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