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Hedging house price risk in the presence of lumpy transaction costs

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  • Han, Lu

Abstract

This paper presents a life-cycle model of housing demand with uncertain house prices and lumpy transaction costs. The paper extends the (S,s) methodology to a non-stationary discrete time framework with multivariate stochastic price processes. This allows the characterization of a self-hedging mechanism in an incomplete housing market: households use earlier accumulated housing wealth to hedge against future housing cost risk. As a result, the direction of the effect of price uncertainty on housing demand depends critically on households' future housing consumption plans. When price uncertainty increases, households consume (and thereby invest in) less housing if they plan to realize the housing wealth gain. However, they will instead take a larger housing position if they plan to move to a bigger home in a correlated housing market in the future.

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  • Han, Lu, 2008. "Hedging house price risk in the presence of lumpy transaction costs," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 270-287, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:juecon:v:64:y:2008:i:2:p:270-287
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    Cited by:

    1. Basant K. Kapur, 2016. "Another Look At Price Instability And Consumer Well-Being: Nondurable And Durable (Housing) Markets," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(02), pages 1-9, June.
    2. M.I. Dröes & H Garretsen & W.J.J. Manshanden, 2012. "The Diversification Benefits of Free Trade in House Value," Working Papers 12-03, Utrecht School of Economics.
    3. Curran, Michael & Dressler, Scott J., 2020. "Preferences, inflation, and welfare," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    4. Bruce Morley & Dennis Thomas, 2018. "Covariance Risk and the Ripple Effect in the UK Regional Housing Market," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 13, pages 1-13, August.
    5. Dröes, Martijn I. & Hassink, Wolter H.J., 2013. "House price risk and the hedging benefits of home ownership," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 92-99.
    6. Damian S. Damianov & Diego Escobari, 2021. "Getting on and Moving Up the Property Ladder: Real Hedging in the U.S. Housing Market Before and After the Crisis," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1201-1237, December.
    7. Lynn Wu & Erik Brynjolfsson, 2015. "The Future of Prediction: How Google Searches Foreshadow Housing Prices and Sales," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Analysis of the Digital Economy, pages 89-118, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. repec:esx:essedp:718 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Piazzesi, M. & Schneider, M., 2016. "Housing and Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1547-1640, Elsevier.
    10. repec:esx:essedp:712 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Han, Bing & Han, Lu & Zhou, Zhengyi, 2020. "Housing Market and Entrepreneurship: Micro Evidence from China," MPRA Paper 102597, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Aug 2020.
    12. Halket, Jonathan R & Vasudev, Santhanagopalan, 2012. "Home Ownership, Savings, and Mobility Over The Life Cycle," Economics Discussion Papers 2876, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    13. Paciorek, Andrew & Sinai, Todd, 2012. "Does home owning smooth the variability of future housing consumption?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 244-257.
    14. Amior, Michael & Halket, Jonathan R, 2012. "Do Households Use Homeownership To Insure Themselves? Evidence Across U.S. Cities," Economics Discussion Papers 8963, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    15. Yifan Chen & Jianhua Gang & Zongxin Qian & Jinfan Zhang, 2023. "Rationality test in the housing market: Project‐level evidence from China," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(3), pages 583-616, June.
    16. Martijn I. Dröes & Marc K. Francke, 2018. "What Causes the Positive Price-Turnover Correlation in European Housing Markets?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 618-646, November.
    17. Jonathan Halket & Santhanagopalan Vasudev, 2014. "Saving Up or Settling Down: Home Ownership over the Life Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(2), pages 345-366, April.
    18. Hui, Eddie C.M. & Chen, Jia & Chan, Ka Kwan Kevin, 2019. "House Hedging Model — which income group is more affected by risk?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 529(C), pages 1-1.
    19. Davis, Morris A. & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2015. "Housing, Finance, and the Macroeconomy," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 753-811, Elsevier.
    20. Martijn Dröes, 2018. "Why Are Housing Demand Curves Upward Sloping?," ERES eres2018_267, European Real Estate Society (ERES).

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