IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jhouse/v41y2018icp200-217.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Optimal portfolio choices and the determination of housing rents under housing market uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Fan, Gang-Zhi
  • Pu, Ming
  • Deng, Xiaoying
  • Ong, Seow Eng

Abstract

This study proposes a utility indifference-based model to investigate the pricing issue of house rents under housing market uncertainty. Our model not only allows for the crucial features in the housing market, such as market incompleteness and high idiosyncratic risk, but also the interaction of households’ house tenure choices with their financial asset holdings. Our model provides interesting insights into the hedging of house market risk and determination of housing rents. In addition to the parameters describing the expected changes and volatility on stock and house returns, we also show that individual precautionary savings motive, idiosyncratic risk premium, and the correlation between stock and housing have important implications for the determination of housing rents. We also test the model predictions empirically using the data from major Asian markets and the empirical results better support the model predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Fan, Gang-Zhi & Pu, Ming & Deng, Xiaoying & Ong, Seow Eng, 2018. "Optimal portfolio choices and the determination of housing rents under housing market uncertainty," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 200-217.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jhouse:v:41:y:2018:i:c:p:200-217
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2018.06.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1051137717301110
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jhe.2018.06.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gang-Zhi Fan & Ming Pu & Seow Ong, 2012. "Optimal Portfolio Choices, House Risk Hedging and the Pricing of Forward House Transactions," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 3-29, June.
    2. James M. Poterba, 1991. "House Price Dynamics: The Role of Tax Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 143-204.
    3. Hendershott, Patric H & Ward, Charles W R, 2003. "Valuing and Pricing Retail Leases with Renewal and Overage Options," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 26(2-3), pages 223-240, March-May.
    4. Sheng Guo & William G. Hardin, 2017. "Financial and Housing Wealth, Expenditures and the Dividend to Ownership," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 58-96, January.
    5. Joao F. Cocco, 2005. "Portfolio Choice in the Presence of Housing," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 535-567.
    6. Fu, Yuming, 1991. "A Model of Housing Tenure Choice: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 381-383, March.
    7. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2011. "House Prices, Home Equity-Based Borrowing, and the US Household Leverage Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2132-2156, August.
    8. Randal Verbrugge, 2008. "The Puzzling Divergence Of Rents And User Costs, 1980–2004," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 54(4), pages 671-699, December.
    9. N. Kundan Kishor & Swati Kumari, 2014. "Consumption-Wealth Ratio and Expected Housing Return," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 36(1), pages 87-108.
    10. Michael J. Seiler, 2015. "Do as I Say, Not as I Do: The Role of Advice versus Actions in the Decision to Strategically Default," Journal of Real Estate Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 191-216, April.
    11. Hoon Cho & James D. Shilling, 2007. "Valuing Retail Shopping Center Lease Contracts," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 35(4), pages 623-649, December.
    12. Richard Buttimer & Steven H. Ott, 2007. "Commercial Real Estate Valuation, Development and Occupancy Under Leasing Uncertainty," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 35(1), pages 21-56, March.
    13. Brueckner, Jan K, 1997. "Consumption and Investment Motives and the Portfolio Choices of Homeowners," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 159-180, October.
    14. Ambrose, Brent W & Hendershott, Patric H & Klosek, Malgorzata, 2002. "Pricing Upward-Only Adjusting Leases," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 33-49, July.
    15. Miao, Jianjun & Wang, Neng, 2007. "Investment, consumption, and hedging under incomplete markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 608-642, December.
    16. Antonia Diaz & Maria Jose Luengo Prado, 2008. "On the User Cost and Homeownership," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(3), pages 584-613, July.
    17. McConnell, John J. & Schallheim, James S., 1983. "Valuation of asset leasing contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 237-261, August.
    18. Todd Sinai & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2005. "Owner-Occupied Housing as a Hedge Against Rent Risk," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(2), pages 763-789.
    19. Marjorie Flavin & Takashi Yamashita, 2002. "Owner-Occupied Housing and the Composition of the Household Portfolio," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 345-362, March.
    20. Rosen, Harvey S & Rosen, Kenneth T & Holtz-Eakin, Douglas, 1984. "Housing Tenure, Uncertainty, and Taxation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(3), pages 405-416, August.
    21. Hu, Xiaoqing, 2005. "Portfolio choices for homeowners," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 114-136, July.
    22. Fu, Yuming, 1995. "Uncertainty, liquidity, and housing choices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 223-236, April.
    23. Jiang, Wang, 1996. "The term structure of interest rates in a pure exchange economy with heterogeneous investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 75-110, May.
    24. Cristian Voicu & Michael Seiler, 2013. "Deriving Optimal Portfolios for Hedging Housing Risk," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 379-396, April.
    25. Englund, Peter & Hwang, Min & Quigley, John M, 2002. "Hedging Housing Risk," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 24(1-2), pages 167-200, Jan.-Marc.
    26. Steven R. Grenadier, 2005. "An Equilibrium Analysis of Real Estate Leases," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(4), pages 1173-1214, July.
    27. Ortalo-Magne, Francois & Rady, Sven, 2002. "Tenure choice and the riskiness of non-housing consumption," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 266-279, September.
    28. Lu Han, 2010. "The Effects of Price Risk on Housing Demand: Empirical Evidence from U.S. Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(11), pages 3889-3928, November.
    29. Chung, Eui-Chul & Haurin, Donald R., 2002. "Housing choices and uncertainty: the impact of stochastic events," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 193-216, September.
    30. James D. Shilling, 2003. "Is There a Risk Premium Puzzle in Real Estate?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 31(4), pages 501-525, December.
    31. Marek Musiela & Thaleia Zariphopoulou, 2004. "A valuation algorithm for indifference prices in incomplete markets," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 399-414, August.
    32. Henderson, Vicky, 2005. "Explicit solutions to an optimal portfolio choice problem with stochastic income," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1237-1266, July.
    33. Richard Meyer & Kenneth Wieand, 1996. "Risk and Return to Housing, Tenure Choice and the Value of Housing in an Asset Pricing Context," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 24(1), pages 113-131, March.
    34. Robst, John & Deitz, Richard & McGoldrick, KimMarie, 1999. "Income variability, uncertainty and housing tenure choice1," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 219-229, March.
    35. Henderson, J Vernon & Ioannides, Yannis M, 1983. "A Model of Housing Tenure Choice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 98-113, March.
    36. Merton, Robert C, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 247-257, August.
    37. Marek Musiela & Thaleia Zariphopoulou, 2004. "An example of indifference prices under exponential preferences," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 229-239, May.
    38. E. Beaubrun-Diant, Kevin. & Maury, Tristan-Pierre, 2016. "Home tenure, stock market participation, and composition of the household portfolio," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1-17.
    39. Eli Beracha & Alexandre Skiba & Ken H Johnson, 2017. "Housing Ownership Decision Making in the Framework of Household Portfolio Choice," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 39(2), pages 263-288.
    40. Eli Beracha & Ken H. Johnson, 2012. "Lessons from Over 30 Years of Buy versus Rent Decisions: Is the American Dream Always Wise?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 40(2), pages 217-247, June.
    41. Rui Yao, 2005. "Optimal Consumption and Portfolio Choices with Risky Housing and Borrowing Constraints," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 197-239.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shao, Shuai & Tian, Zhihua & Zhang, Yan & Li, Baoli, 2023. "The housing status and two-child fertility willingness of floating population: Evidence from the Chinese General Social Survey," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 247-266.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gang-Zhi Fan & Ming Pu & Seow Ong, 2012. "Optimal Portfolio Choices, House Risk Hedging and the Pricing of Forward House Transactions," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 3-29, June.
    2. repec:esx:essedp:718 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Amior, Michael & Halket, Jonathan R, 2012. "Do Households Use Homeownership To Insure Themselves? Evidence Across U.S. Cities," Economics Discussion Papers 8963, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    4. Eli Beracha & Alexandre Skiba & Ken H Johnson, 2017. "Housing Ownership Decision Making in the Framework of Household Portfolio Choice," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 39(2), pages 263-288.
    5. Piazzesi, M. & Schneider, M., 2016. "Housing and Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1547-1640, Elsevier.
    6. Tracy M. Turner & Daigyo Seo, 2007. "Investment Risk And The Transition Into Homeownership," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(2), pages 229-253, May.
    7. Damian S. Damianov & Diego Escobari, 2021. "Getting on and Moving Up the Property Ladder: Real Hedging in the U.S. Housing Market Before and After the Crisis," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1201-1237, December.
    8. repec:esx:essedp:712 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. François Ortalo-Magné & Andrea Prat, 2016. "Spatial Asset Pricing: A First Step," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 83(329), pages 130-171, January.
    10. Halket, Jonathan R & Vasudev, Santhanagopalan, 2012. "Home Ownership, Savings, and Mobility Over The Life Cycle," Economics Discussion Papers 2876, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    11. Ha, Sejeong & Hilber, Christian A.L. & Schöni, Olivier, 2021. "Do long-distance moves discourage homeownership? Evidence from England," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    12. Jonathan Halket & Santhanagopalan Vasudev, 2014. "Saving Up or Settling Down: Home Ownership over the Life Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(2), pages 345-366, April.
    13. Jan Rouwendal, 2009. "Housing Wealth and Household Portfolios in an Ageing Society," De Economist, Springer, vol. 157(1), pages 1-48, March.
    14. Raj Chetty & László Sándor & Adam Szeidl, 2017. "The Effect of Housing on Portfolio Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(3), pages 1171-1212, June.
    15. Ming Pu & Gang-Zhi Fan & Seow Ong, 2012. "Heterogeneous Agents and the Indifference Pricing of Property Index Linked Swaps," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 543-569, May.
    16. Liao, Yu & Zhang, Junfu, 2021. "Hukou status, housing tenure choice and wealth accumulation in urban China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    17. Gathergood, John, 2011. "Unemployment risk, house price risk and the transition into home ownership in the United Kingdom," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 200-209, September.
    18. Hilber, Christian A.L., 2005. "Neighborhood externality risk and the homeownership status of properties," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 213-241, March.
    19. Jie Li & Sheng Li & Alice Y. Ouyang, 2023. "Housing and Wealth Inequality: The Role of Financial Market Participation," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 24(1), pages 141-170, May.
    20. Bracke, Philippe & Hilber, Christian A.L. & Silva, Olmo, 2018. "Mortgage debt and entrepreneurship," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 52-66.
    21. Khalid Sekkat & Ariane Szafarz, 2011. "Valuing Homeownership," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 43(4), pages 491-504, November.
    22. Ortalo-Magne, Francois & Rady, Sven, 2002. "Tenure choice and the riskiness of non-housing consumption," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 266-279, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tenure choice; Resale risk; Reservation rent; Utility maximization; Incomplete markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • R20 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - General
    • D52 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Incomplete Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jhouse:v:41:y:2018:i:c:p:200-217. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622881 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.