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The role of price spillovers in the American housing boom

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  • DeFusco, Anthony
  • Ding, Wenjie
  • Ferreira, Fernando
  • Gyourko, Joseph

Abstract

One of the striking features of the last U.S. housing boom was the heterogeneity in the timing of its onset across local markets. In this paper, we exploit this heterogeneity to estimate the extent to which the boom was spread via spatial spillovers from one market to another. Our analysis focuses on spillovers that occur around the time that a local market enters its boom, which we identify using sharp structural breaks in house price growth rates. On the extensive margin, there is evidence that the likelihood of a market booming increases substantially if nearby neighbors boom. On the intensive margin, we also find statistically significant but economically modest effects of the size of a neighbor's boom on subsequent price growth in nearby markets. These affects appear to be unrelated to local market fundamentals, suggesting a potential role for non-rational factors.

Suggested Citation

  • DeFusco, Anthony & Ding, Wenjie & Ferreira, Fernando & Gyourko, Joseph, 2018. "The role of price spillovers in the American housing boom," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 72-84.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:juecon:v:108:y:2018:i:c:p:72-84
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2018.10.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Xintong Yang & Yu Zhang & Qi Li, 2021. "The role of price spillovers: what is different in China," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 459-485, January.
    2. Corinna Ghirelli & Danilo Leiva-León & Alberto Urtasun, 2023. "Housing prices in Spain: convergence or decoupling?," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 165-187, June.
    3. Michael Bailey & Ruiqing Cao & Theresa Kuchler & Johannes Stroebel, 2016. "Social Networks and Housing Markets," NBER Working Papers 22258, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Jean-Charles Bricongne & Baptiste Meunier & Raquel Caldeira, 2024. "Should Central Banks Care About Text Mining? A Literature Review," Working papers 950, Banque de France.
    5. Rohan Ganduri & Steven Chong Xiao & Serena Wenjing Xiao, 2023. "Tracing the source of liquidity for distressed housing markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(2), pages 408-440, March.
    6. Cun, Wukuang & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2022. "A spatiotemporal equilibrium model of migration and housing interlinkages," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    7. Alain Coën & Alexis Pourcelot & Richard Malle, 2022. "Macroeconomic shocks and ripple effects in the Greater Paris Metropolis," Post-Print hal-03713561, HAL.
    8. P. S. Morawakage & G. Earl & B. Liu & E. Roca & A. Omura, 2023. "Housing Risk and Returns in Submarkets with Spatial Dependence and Heterogeneity," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 67(4), pages 695-734, November.
    9. Huthaifa Alqaralleh & Gazi Salah Uddin & Canepa, Alessandra, 2022. "Time-frequency connectedness across housing markets, stock market and uncertainty: A Wavelet-Time Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 202204, University of Turin.
    10. David M. Harrison & Michael J. Seiler & Liuming Yang, 2024. "The Impact of iBuyers on Housing Market Dynamics," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 68(3), pages 425-461, April.
    11. Mustafa Çakır, 2023. "Regional inflation spillovers in Turkey," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 959-980, April.
    12. Xiaoqing Zhou, 2022. "Financial Technology and the Transmission of Monetary Policy: The Role of Social Networks," Working Papers 2203, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 14 Feb 2023.
    13. Daniel I. García, 2022. "Second‐home buying and the housing boom and bust," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(1), pages 33-58, March.
    14. Jacob Dearmon & Tony E. Smith, 2021. "A hierarchical approach to scalable Gaussian process regression for spatial data," Journal of Spatial Econometrics, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-33, December.
    15. Zheng, Xian & Chen, Xingtao & Yuan, Ziqing, 2021. "Exploring the spatial spillover effect of home purchase restrictions on residential land prices based on the difference-in-differences approach: Evidence from 195 Chinese cities," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    16. Eileen van Straelen, 2021. "Desperate House Sellers: Distress Among Developers," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-065, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Coën, Alain & Pourcelot, Alexis & Malle, Richard, 2022. "Macroeconomic shocks and ripple effects in the Greater Paris Metropolis," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    18. Hurn, Stan & Shi, Shuping & Wang, Ben, 2022. "Housing networks and driving forces," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    19. Cheng-Wen Lee & Shu-Hen Chiang & Zhong-Qin Wen, 2023. "Pursuing the Sustainability of Real Estate Market: The Case of Chinese Land Resources Diversification," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-19, March.
    20. Jeffrey P. Cohen & Cletus C. Coughlin & Daniel Soques, 2019. "House Price Growth Interdependencies and Comovement," Working Papers 2019-028, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 11 Jan 2021.
    21. Iwona Oleniuch, 2021. "Employees' Perception of the Difficulties of Work at Home from the Perspective of their Experience on Remote Working," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 781-796.

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