IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jrpoli/v93y2024ics0301420724004239.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Will carbon neutrality alleviate China's energy security concerns? – The strategic importance of critical metals in batteries

Author

Listed:
  • Du, Yufan
  • Li, Jie
  • Xu, Yuan

Abstract

How carbon neutrality may reshape energy security concerns weighs greatly for all major energy-importing countries, including China. Large-scale electrification and energy transition as a crucial pathway will potentially alter the strategic importance of different resources. This study examines three key battery-related metals – lithium, cobalt, and nickel – in China's carbon-neutral future by calculating their foreign dependency ratios and import costs and then comparing them with those of oil and natural gas. Scenario analysis shows that China's foreign dependency ratios of the metals could exceed 80% in many scenarios in 2030 and 2050 with import costs possibly reaching USD 135 billion in 2030 and USD 265 billion in 2050. Their strategic importance in 2050, as represented by import costs, can be equivalent to the average level during 2016–2020 for oil and natural gas if unfavorable conditions happen simultaneously, specifically high metal intensity, low recycling rates, and high metal prices. Hence for China, carbon neutrality might swap conventional energy security concerns with new ones, especially considering the much higher geographic concentration of metal imports. Nevertheless, their foreign dependency could also be substantially reduced or even completely avoided in low-demand scenarios with optimistic recycling rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Du, Yufan & Li, Jie & Xu, Yuan, 2024. "Will carbon neutrality alleviate China's energy security concerns? – The strategic importance of critical metals in batteries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:93:y:2024:i:c:s0301420724004239
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105056
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301420724004239
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105056?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Belaïd, Fateh & Al-Sarihi, Aisha & Al-Mestneer, Raed, 2023. "Balancing climate mitigation and energy security goals amid converging global energy crises: The role of green investments," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 534-542.
    2. Gulley, Andrew L. & McCullough, Erin A. & Shedd, Kim B., 2019. "China's domestic and foreign influence in the global cobalt supply chain," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 317-323.
    3. Xiaoxu Song & Shanying Hu & Dingjiang Chen & Bing Zhu, 2017. "Estimation of Waste Battery Generation and Analysis of the Waste Battery Recycling System in China," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 21(1), pages 57-69, February.
    4. Zeng, Xianlai & Li, Jinhui & Liu, Lili, 2015. "Solving spent lithium-ion battery problems in China: Opportunities and challenges," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1759-1767.
    5. Hatipoglu, Emre & Soytas, Mehmet Ali & Belaïd, Fateh, 2023. "Environmental consequences of geopolitical crises: The case of economic sanctions and emissions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    6. Peter Greim & A. A. Solomon & Christian Breyer, 2020. "Assessment of lithium criticality in the global energy transition and addressing policy gaps in transportation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, December.
    7. Arumugam Manthiram, 2020. "A reflection on lithium-ion battery cathode chemistry," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-9, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Mengmeng & Liu, Kang & Dutta, Shanta & Alessi, Daniel S. & Rinklebe, Jörg & Ok, Yong Sik & Tsang, Daniel C.W., 2022. "Recycling of lithium iron phosphate batteries: Status, technologies, challenges, and prospects," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    2. Huang, Jianbai & Dong, Xuesong & Chen, Jinyu & Zeng, Anqi, 2023. "The slow-release effect of recycling on rapid demand growth of critical metals from EV batteries up to 2050: Evidence from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    3. Liu, Wei & Li, Xin & Liu, Chunyan & Wang, Minxi & Liu, Litao, 2023. "Resilience assessment of the cobalt supply chain in China under the impact of electric vehicles and geopolitical supply risks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    4. Belaïd, Fateh & Al-Sarihi, Aisha, 2024. "Saudi Arabia energy transition in a post-paris agreement era: An analysis with a multi-level perspective approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PB).
    5. Fateh Belaïd & Charlotte Unger, 2024. "Crafting effective climate, energy, and environmental policy: time for action," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-5, December.
    6. Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Breyer, Christian, 2024. "Role of smart charging of electric vehicles and vehicle-to-grid in integrated renewables-based energy systems on country level," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    7. Adriano Cordisco & Riccardo Melloni & Lucia Botti, 2022. "Sustainable Circular Economy for the Integration of Disadvantaged People: A Preliminary Study on the Reuse of Lithium-Ion Batteries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-15, July.
    8. Hasret Sahin & A. A. Solomon & Arman Aghahosseini & Christian Breyer, 2024. "Systemwide energy return on investment in a sustainable transition towards net zero power systems," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
    9. Li, Pin & He, Qi & Zhang, Jinsuo & Xia, Qiyuan, 2024. "Analyzing the impact of energy synergy and renewable energy generation on energy security: Empirical evidence from China's Yangtze River Delta region," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    10. Nicholas Bamegne Nambie & Philomena Dadzie & Dorcas Oye Haywood-Dadzie, 2023. "Measuring the Effect of Income Inequality, Financial Inclusion, Investment, and Unemployment, on Economic Growth in Africa: A Moderating Role of Digital Financial Technology," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 13(4), pages 111-124, July.
    11. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Arfaoui, Nadia, 2023. "Exploring downside risk dependence across energy markets: Electricity, conventional energy, carbon, and clean energy during episodes of market crises," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    12. Yang, Jingluan & Chen, Wei, 2023. "Unravelling the landscape of global cobalt trade: Patterns, robustness, and supply chain security," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    13. Hache, Emmanuel & Seck, Gondia Sokhna & Simoen, Marine & Bonnet, Clément & Carcanague, Samuel, 2019. "Critical raw materials and transportation sector electrification: A detailed bottom-up analysis in world transport," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 6-25.
    14. Song, Huiling & Wang, Chang & Lei, Xiaojie & Zhang, Hongwei, 2022. "Dynamic dependence between main-byproduct metals and the role of clean energy market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    15. Dhiya Durani Sofian Azizi & Marlia M. Hanafiah & Kok Sin Woon, 2023. "Material Flow Analysis in WEEE Management for Circular Economy: A Content Review on Applications, Limitations, and Future Outlook," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-22, February.
    16. Han Yan & Md. Qamruzzaman & Sylvia Kor, 2023. "Nexus between Green Investment, Fiscal Policy, Environmental Tax, Energy Price, Natural Resources, and Clean Energy—A Step towards Sustainable Development by Fostering Clean Energy Inclusion," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-25, September.
    17. Shenxiang Zhang & Xian Wei & Xue Cao & Meiwen Peng & Min Wang & Lin Jiang & Jian Jin, 2024. "Solar-driven membrane separation for direct lithium extraction from artificial salt-lake brine," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, December.
    18. Dong, Kangyin & Yang, Senmiao & Wang, Jianda & Nepal, Rabindra & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2024. "Does Geopolitical Risk Accelerate Climate Vulnerability? New Evidence from the European Green Deal," Working Papers 15-2024, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics.
    19. Wen, Jun & Zhang, Sen & Chang, Chun-Ping & Anugrah, Donni Fajar & Affandi, Yoga, 2023. "Does climate vulnerability promote green investment under energy supply restriction?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    20. Tang, Yanyan & Zhang, Qi & Li, Yaoming & Li, Hailong & Pan, Xunzhang & Mclellan, Benjamin, 2019. "The social-economic-environmental impacts of recycling retired EV batteries under reward-penalty mechanism," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 1-1.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:93:y:2024:i:c:s0301420724004239. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30467 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.