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U.S. Labor supply and demand in the long run

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  • Jorgenson, Dale W.
  • Goettle, Richard J.
  • Ho, Mun S.
  • Slesnick, Daniel T.
  • Wilcoxen, Peter J.

Abstract

In this paper we model U.S. labor supply and demand over the next 25 years. Despite the anticipated aging of the population, moderate population growth will provide growing supplies of labor well into the 21st century. Improvements in labor quality due to greater education and experience will also continue for some time, but will eventually disappear. Productivity growth for the U.S. economy will be below long-term historical averages, but labor-using technical change will be a stimulus to the growth of labor demand. Year-to-year changes in economic activity will be primarily the consequence of capital accumulation. However, the driving forces of economic growth over the long term will be demography and technology.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorgenson, Dale W. & Goettle, Richard J. & Ho, Mun S. & Slesnick, Daniel T. & Wilcoxen, Peter J., 2008. "U.S. Labor supply and demand in the long run," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 603-618.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:30:y:2008:i:4:p:603-618
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    1. Dale Jorgenson & Mun Ho & Jon Samuels & Kevin Stiroh, 2007. "Industry Origins of the American Productivity Resurgence," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 229-252.
    2. Dale W. Jorgenson, 1998. "Growth, Volume 2: Energy, the Environment, and Economic Growth," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 2, number 0262100746, April.
    3. Dale W. Jorgenson & J. Steven Landefeld, 2006. "Blueprint for Expanded and Integrated US Accounts: Review, Assessment, and Next Steps," NBER Chapters, in: A New Architecture for the US National Accounts, pages 13-112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Dale W. Jorgenson, 2009. "A New Architecture For The U.S. National Accounts," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 55(1), pages 1-42, March.
    5. Dale W. Jorgenson & Mun S. Ho & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2005. "Productivity, Volume 3: Information Technology and the American Growth Resurgence," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 3, number 0262101114, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jin, Hui & Jorgenson, Dale W., 2010. "Econometric modeling of technical change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 205-219, August.

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