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Leadership and cooperation in the Europian Monetary System: A simulation approach

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  • Roubini, Nouriel

Abstract

To assess the importance of economic interdependence and the potential gains from policy coordination in the European area, this paper analyzes the international transmission of policies and disturbances in a rational expectation dynamic general equilibrium simulation model of the work economy, and applies the analysis to the study of the European Monetary System. International spillover effects and potential gains from coordination appear to be small under the assumption of flexible exchange rates in the European area. The implications of a fixed rate EMS with German leadership are compared with those of a cooperative fixed exchange rate regime. Finally, capital controls under fixed rates fails to insure policy autonomy and insulation from external disturbances for the countries restricting the capital movements.
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  • Roubini, Nouriel, 1991. "Leadership and cooperation in the Europian Monetary System: A simulation approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 1-39.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:13:y:1991:i:1:p:1-39
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    1. Jeffrey Sachs & Warwick J. McKibbin, 1985. "Macroeconomic Policies in the OECD and LDC External Adjustmemt," NBER Working Papers 1534, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Ishii, Naoko & McKibbin, Warwick & Sachs, Jeffrey, 1985. "The economic policy mix, policy cooperation, and protectionism: Some aspects of macroeconomic interdependence among the United States, Japan, and other OECD countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 533-572.
    3. Neumann, Manfred J. M., 1984. "Intervention in the mark/dollar market: the authorities' reaction function," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 223-239, August.
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    1. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Bok, Tomas, 2001. "The European Monetary Union: were there alternatives to the ECB?: A quantitative evaluation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(7), pages 775-806, October.
    2. Paul R. Masson & Mark P. Taylor, 1993. "Fiscal Policy within Common Currency Areas," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 29-44, March.
    3. Douven, Rudy & Peeters, Marga, 1998. "GDP-spillovers in multi-country models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 163-195, April.

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