IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jomega/v57y2015ipap34-39.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Portfolio optimization in hedge funds by OGARCH and Markov Switching Model

Author

Listed:
  • Luo, Cuicui
  • Seco, Luis
  • Wu, Lin-Liang Bill

Abstract

This paper investigates and compares the performances of the optimal portfolio selected by using the Orthogonal GARCH (OGARCH) Model, Markov Switching Model and the Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) Model in a fund of hedge funds. These models are used to calibrate the returns of four HFRX indices from which the optimal portfolio is constructed using the Mean-Variance method. The performance of each optimal portfolio is compared in an out-of-sample period and it is observed that overall, OGARCH gives the best-performed optimal portfolio with the highest Sharpe ratio and the lowest risk. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis for the parameters of OGARCH is performed and it shows that the asset weights in the optimal portfolios selected by OGARCH are very sensitive to slight changes in the input parameters.

Suggested Citation

  • Luo, Cuicui & Seco, Luis & Wu, Lin-Liang Bill, 2015. "Portfolio optimization in hedge funds by OGARCH and Markov Switching Model," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 57(PA), pages 34-39.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jomega:v:57:y:2015:i:pa:p:34-39
    DOI: 10.1016/j.omega.2015.01.021
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030504831500050X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.omega.2015.01.021?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Makarov, Igor, 2004. "An econometric model of serial correlation and illiquidity in hedge fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 529-609, December.
    2. Harris, Richard D.F. & Mazibas, Murat, 2010. "Dynamic hedge fund portfolio construction," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 351-357, December.
    3. Amihud, Y & Barnea, A, 1974. "Portfolio selection for managerial control," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 2(6), pages 775-783, December.
    4. Vikas Agarwal, 2004. "Risks and Portfolio Decisions Involving Hedge Funds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(1), pages 63-98.
    5. Billio, Monica & Getmansky, Mila & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2012. "Dynamic risk exposures in hedge funds," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3517-3532.
    6. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    7. Szabolcs Blazsek & Anna Downarowicz, 2013. "Forecasting hedge fund volatility: a Markov regime-switching approach," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 243-275, April.
    8. Briec, Walter & Kerstens, Kristiaan, 2009. "Multi-horizon Markowitz portfolio performance appraisals: A general approach," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 50-62, February.
    9. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    10. Tang, Gordon Y. N., 2004. "How efficient is naive portfolio diversification? an educational note," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 155-160, April.
    11. Sawik, Tadeusz, 2011. "Selection of supply portfolio under disruption risks," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 194-208, April.
    12. Östermark, R, 1990. "Portfolio efficiency of univariate time series models," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 159-169.
    13. Szabolcs Blazsek & Anna Downarowicz, 2008. "Regime switching models of hedge fund returns," Faculty Working Papers 12/08, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    14. Ballestero, Enrique & Pla-Santamaria, David, 2004. "Selecting portfolios for mutual funds," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 385-394, October.
    15. Valle, C.A. & Meade, N. & Beasley, J.E., 2014. "Absolute return portfolios," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 20-41.
    16. Hui, T-K & Kwan, EK, 1994. "International portfolio diversification: A factor analysis approach," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 263-267, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Apriani Dorkas Rambu Atahau & Robiyanto Robiyanto & Andrian Dolfriandra Huruta, 2022. "Predicting Co-Movement of Banking Stocks Using Orthogonal GARCH," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-13, August.
    2. Carlo Alberto Magni & Stefano Malagoli & Andrea Marchioni & Giovanni Mastroleo, 2020. "Rating firms and sensitivity analysis," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 71(12), pages 1940-1958, December.
    3. Guillermo Badía & Vicente Pina & Lourdes Torres, 2019. "Financial Performance of Government Bond Portfolios Based on Environmental, Social and Governance Criteria," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-13, April.
    4. Liu, Yong-Jun & Yang, Guo-Sen & Zhang, Wei-Guo, 2024. "A novel regret-rejoice cross-efficiency approach for energy stock portfolio optimization," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    5. Magni, Carlo Alberto & Marchioni, Andrea, 2019. "Performance measurement and decomposition of value added," MPRA Paper 95258, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. repec:grm:ecoyun:201619 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Leonardo Badea & Daniel Ştefan Armeanu & Iulian Panait & Ştefan Cristian Gherghina, 2019. "A Markov Regime Switching Approach towards Assessing Resilience of Romanian Collective Investment Undertakings," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-24, March.
    8. Magni, Carlo Alberto & Marchioni, Andrea & Baschieri, Davide, 2023. "The Attribution Matrix and the joint use of Finite Change Sensitivity Index and Residual Income for value-based performance measurement," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 306(2), pages 872-892.
    9. Abdul Aziz, Nor Syahilla & Vrontos, Spyridon & M. Hasim, Haslifah, 2019. "Evaluation of multivariate GARCH models in an optimal asset allocation framework," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 568-596.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Newton, David & Platanakis, Emmanouil & Stafylas, Dimitrios & Sutcliffe, Charles & Ye, Xiaoxia, 2021. "Hedge fund strategies, performance &diversification: A portfolio theory & stochastic discount factor approach," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(5).
    2. Racicot, François-Éric & Théoret, Raymond, 2018. "Multi-moment risk, hedging strategies, & the business cycle," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 637-675.
    3. Stafylas, Dimitrios & Andrikopoulos, Athanasios & Tolikas, Konstantinos, 2023. "Hedge fund performance persistence under different business cycles and stock market regimes," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    4. Andrew W. Lo & Mila Getmansky & Peter A. Lee, 2015. "Hedge Funds: A Dynamic Industry in Transition," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 483-577, December.
    5. Racicot, François-Éric & Théoret, Raymond, 2019. "Hedge fund return higher moments over the business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 73-97.
    6. Stafylas, Dimitrios & Anderson, Keith & Uddin, Moshfique, 2018. "Hedge fund performance attribution under various market conditions," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 221-237.
    7. Stafylas, Dimitrios & Andrikopoulos, Athanasios, 2020. "Determinants of hedge fund performance during ‘good’ and ‘bad’ economic periods," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    8. Gregoriou, Greg N. & Racicot, François-Éric & Théoret, Raymond, 2021. "The response of hedge fund tail risk to macroeconomic shocks: A nonlinear VAR approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 843-872.
    9. François-Éric Racicot & Raymond Théoret, 2022. "Tracking market and non-traditional sources of risks in procyclical and countercyclical hedge fund strategies under extreme scenarios: a nonlinear VAR approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-56, December.
    10. Tarnaud, Albane Christine & Leleu, Hervé, 2018. "Portfolio analysis with DEA: Prior to choosing a model," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 57-76.
    11. Harris, Richard D.F. & Mazibas, Murat, 2013. "Dynamic hedge fund portfolio construction: A semi-parametric approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 139-149.
    12. Loriana Pelizzon & Monica Billio & Mila Getmansky, 2008. "Non-Parametric Analysis of Hedge Fund Returns: New Insights from High Frequency Data," Working Papers 2008_11, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    13. Cui, Wei & Yao, Juan, 2020. "Funds of hedge funds: Are they really the high society for little guys?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 346-361.
    14. Monica Billio & Mila Getmansky & Loriana Pelizzon, 2008. "Crises and Hedge Fund Risk," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2561, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Oct 2009.
    15. Nicholas Chan & Mila Getmansky & Shane M. Haas & Andrew W. Lo, 2007. "Systemic Risk and Hedge Funds," NBER Chapters, in: The Risks of Financial Institutions, pages 235-330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Subbiah, Mohan & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2016. "Hedge fund allocation: Evaluating parametric and nonparametric forecasts using alternative portfolio construction techniques," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 189-201.
    17. Nicole M. Boyson & Christof W. Stahel & Rene M. Stulz, 2006. "Is There Hedge Fund Contagion?," NBER Working Papers 12090, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Boyson, Nicole M. & Stahel, Christof W. & Stulz, Rene, 2008. "Hedge Fund Contagion and Liquidity," Working Paper Series 2008-8, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    19. Slavutskaya, Anna, 2013. "Short-term hedge fund performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4404-4431.
    20. Giamouridis, Daniel & Vrontos, Ioannis D., 2007. "Hedge fund portfolio construction: A comparison of static and dynamic approaches," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 199-217, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jomega:v:57:y:2015:i:pa:p:34-39. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/375/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.