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A multilogit approach to predicting corporate failure--Some evidence for the UK corporate sector

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  • Peel, M. J.
  • Peel, D. A.

Abstract

In this paper we demonstrate, using conventional logit analysis, how a number of non-financial variables, and more particularly the time lag in publishing annual accounts, can discriminate between failing and non-failing quoted firms up to three years before failure. We then, in a novel way, demonstrate how this information can be combined in a multilogit model. Previous models which have incorporated data sets one or more years prior to failure have only addressed the problem of whether a company will fail and not when it will fail. The new approach adopted here is concerned not only with predicting whether a company will fail, but with simultaneously predicting when it will fail, based on data up to three accounting periods before failure. This approach, if successful, would provide users with a much more informative analytical tool than that reported in previous failure prediction studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Peel, M. J. & Peel, D. A., 1988. "A multilogit approach to predicting corporate failure--Some evidence for the UK corporate sector," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 309-318.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jomega:v:16:y:1988:i:4:p:309-318
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    Cited by:

    1. Nadine Levratto & Luc Tessier & Messaoud Zouikri, 2011. "Small, alone and poor: a merciless portrait of insolvent French firms, 2007-2010," Working Papers hal-04140945, HAL.
    2. Zhichao Luo & Pingyu Hsu & Ni Xu, 2020. "SME Default Prediction Framework with the Effective Use of External Public Credit Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-18, September.
    3. Paweł Zając & Piotr Gurgul, 2012. "Forecasting of migration matrices in business demography," Statistics in Transition new series, Główny Urząd Statystyczny (Polska), vol. 13(2), pages 387-404, June.
    4. Wu, Chloe Yu-Hsuan & Hsu, Hwa-Hsien & Haslam, Jim, 2016. "Audit committees, non-audit services, and auditor reporting decisions prior to failure," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 240-256.
    5. Nadine Levratto & Luc Tessier & Messaoud Zouikri, 2011. "Small, alone and poor: a merciless portrait of insolvent French firms, 2007-2010," EconomiX Working Papers 2011-36, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    6. Francesco Ciampi & Valentina Cillo & Fabio Fiano, 2020. "Combining Kohonen maps and prior payment behavior for small enterprise default prediction," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1007-1039, April.
    7. Oliver Lukason & María-del-Mar Camacho-Miñano, 2019. "Bankruptcy Risk, Its Financial Determinants and Reporting Delays: Do Managers Have Anything to Hide?," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-15, July.
    8. Jones, Stewart & Hensher, David A., 2007. "Modelling corporate failure: A multinomial nested logit analysis for unordered outcomes," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 89-107.
    9. Hsu, Hwa-Hsien & Wu, Chloe Yu-Hsuan, 2014. "Board composition, grey directors and corporate failure in the UK," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 215-227.
    10. Andreas Charitou & Evi Neophytou & Chris Charalambous, 2004. "Predicting corporate failure: empirical evidence for the UK," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 465-497.

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