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Measuring expectations of inflation: Effects of survey mode, wording, and opportunities to revise

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  • Bruine de Bruin, Wändi
  • van der Klaauw, Wilbert
  • van Rooij, Maarten
  • Teppa, Federica
  • de Vos, Klaas

Abstract

Several national surveys aim to elicit consumers’ inflation expectations. Median expectations tend to track objective inflation estimates over time, although responses display large dispersion. Medians also tend to differ between surveys, possibly reflecting survey design differences. Using a nationally representative Dutch sample, we evaluate the importance of three survey design features in explaining observed differences: mode (face-to-face vs. web), question wording (‘prices in general’ vs. ‘inflation’), and the explicit opportunity to revise responses. We examine effects on item non-responses, revisions, reported inflation expectations and their deviation from the CPI inflation rate. We discuss implications of our findings for survey design.

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  • Bruine de Bruin, Wändi & van der Klaauw, Wilbert & van Rooij, Maarten & Teppa, Federica & de Vos, Klaas, 2017. "Measuring expectations of inflation: Effects of survey mode, wording, and opportunities to revise," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 45-58.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:joepsy:v:59:y:2017:i:c:p:45-58
    DOI: 10.1016/j.joep.2017.01.011
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    Cited by:

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    2. Hajdini, Ina & Knotek, Edward S. & Leer, John & Pedemonte, Mathieu & Rich, Robert & Schoenle, Raphael, 2024. "Indirect consumer inflation expectations: Theory and evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(S).
    3. Olivier Coibion & Dimitris Georgarakos & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2023. "Forward Guidance and Household Expectations," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(5), pages 2131-2171.
    4. Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner & Maarten van Rooij, 2023. "The anchoring of long-term inflation expectations of consumers: insights from a new survey," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(1), pages 96-116.
    5. Pascal Büsing & Henning Cordes & Thomas Langer, 2023. "How the provision of inflation information affects pension contributions: A field experiment," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 90(3), pages 633-666, September.
    6. Hayo, Bernd & Méon, Pierre-Guillaume, 2023. "Measuring Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations: The Effect of Guided vs Non-Guided Inflation Questions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    7. Niu, Xiaoxiao & Harvey, Nigel, 2022. "Context effects in inflation surveys: The influence of additional information and prior questions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 988-1004.
    8. Pavlova, Lora, 2024. "Framing effects in consumer expectations surveys," ZEW Discussion Papers 24-036, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    9. Vedran Lesic & Richard E. Hodgett & Alan Pearman & Amy Peace, 2019. "How to Improve Impact Reporting for Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-21, March.
    10. Beckmann, Elisabeth & Schmidt, Tobias, 2020. "Bundesbank online pilot survey on consumer expectations," Technical Papers 01/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    11. Junichi Kikuchi, 2022. "Inflation Expectations and Survey Design," ISER Discussion Paper 1198, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    12. David A. Comerford, 2024. "Response Bias in Survey Measures of Expectations: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Expectations’ Inflation Module," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(4), pages 933-953, June.
    13. Pooja Kapoor & Sujata Kar, 2023. "A review of inflation expectations and perceptions research in the past four decades: a bibliometric analysis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 279-302, May.
    14. Carola Binder & Alex Rodrigue, 2018. "Household Informedness and Long‐Run Inflation Expectations: Experimental Evidence," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 85(2), pages 580-598, October.
    15. Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner & Maarten van Rooij, 2021. "Anchoring of consumers’ long-term euro area inflation expectations during the pandemic," Working Papers 715, DNB.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumer surveys; Inflation expectations; Mode effects; Question wording;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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