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An investigation of nonlinear effects of debt on growth

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  • Yolcu Karadam, Duygu

Abstract

The existence of threshold effects in public debt-growth relationship has been intensively discussed since Reinhart and Rogoff (2010). Using various country groups, a number of studies pointed out different turning points for public debt beyond which economic growth sharply slows down. This study investigates the threshold effects in debt-growth link for different types of debt employing a Panel Smooth Transition Regression framework. We basically find that nonlinearity of the relationship between debt and growth depend mostly on debt's structure. For a large panel data set which covers both developing and industrial countries, our results show that the direction of the effect of public debt on growth changes smoothly from positive to negative depending on the level of indebtedness. Furthermore, we find that debt threshold is lower for developing countries implying that public debt can hurt growth at lower levels of debt for those economies relative to advanced countries. We also find that short-term external debt and public long-term external debt generate more pronounced and strong negative impact on growth for high levels of indebtedness.

Suggested Citation

  • Yolcu Karadam, Duygu, 2018. "An investigation of nonlinear effects of debt on growth," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 1-1.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:joecas:v:18:y:2018:i:c:7
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2018.e00097
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    Cited by:

    1. İbrahim ÖZMEN, 2022. "New Evidence from Government Debt and Economic Growth in Core and Periphery European Union Countries : Asymmetric Panel Causality," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 167-187, October.
    2. Oguzhan Bozatli & Seref Can Serin & Murat Demir, 2024. "The causal relationship between public debt and economic growth in G7 countries: new evidence from time and frequency domain approaches," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 1-27, June.
    3. Blessy Augustine & O.P.C. Muhammed Rafi, 2021. "Public Debt - Economic Growth: Evidence of a Non-linear Relationship," BASE University Working Papers 11/2021, BASE University, Bengaluru, India.
    4. Gopal Prasad Bhatta, PhD & Anu Mishra, 2020. "Estimating Optimum Growth-Maximizing Public Debt Threshold for Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Economic Research Department, vol. 32(2), pages 1-28, October.
    5. Maryjane Chigbo & Oluwatosin Adeniyi & Samuel Orekoya, 2020. "Econometric analysis of the deficit financing options-growth inclusiveness nexus in India and Nigeria," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 313-338, December.
    6. Chowdhury, Mohammad Ashraful Ferdous & Prince, Ehsanur Rauf & Shoyeb, Mohammad & Abdullah, Mohammad, 2024. "The threshold effect of institutional quality on sovereign debt and economic stability," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 39-59.
    7. Thomas Habanabakize & Zandri Dickason-Koekemoer, 2023. "Country Risk Effects and Government Domestic Debt Nexus in South Africa," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 13(1), pages 29-34, January.
    8. Augustine, Blessy & Rafi, O.P.C. Muhammed, 2023. "Public debt - economic growth nexus in emerging and developing economies: Exploring nonlinearity," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    9. Kassouri, Yacouba & Altıntaş, Halil & Alancioğlu, Erdal & Kacou, Kacou Yves Thierry, 2021. "New insights on the debt-growth nexus: A combination of the interactive fixed effects and panel threshold approach," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 40-55.
    10. Chen Kong San & Lee Chin, 2023. "Impact of Public Debt on Economic Growth: A Quantile Regression Approach," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 12(2), pages 250-278, December.
    11. Leitão, João & Ferreira, Joaquim & Santibanez-González, Ernesto, 2022. "New insights into decoupling economic growth, technological progress and carbon dioxide emissions: Evidence from 40 countries," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    12. Boikos, Spyridon, 2020. "Capital utilization, obsolescence and technological progress," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    13. Christian Richter & Sara El Asy, 2019. "Is Public Debt Always Harmful to Economic Growth," Working Papers 52, The German University in Cairo, Faculty of Management Technology.
    14. Oyadeyi, Olajide O. & Agboola, Olayode W. & Okunade, Solomon O. & Osinubi, Tolulope T., 2024. "The debt-growth nexus and debt sustainability in Nigeria: Are there reasons to be concerned?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 129-152.
    15. S. Shvets?, 2020. "Modeling the impact of public debt on economic growth in Ukraine," Economy and Forecasting, Valeriy Heyets, issue 3, pages 146-156.
    16. D. Mukhsimova, 2020. "The Impact Of The Development Of Manufacturing On Economic Growth: The Experience Of Uzbekistan," Economy and Forecasting, Valeriy Heyets, issue 4, pages 137-155.
    17. Nokwanda Mqolombeni & Devi Datt Tewari & Kehinde Damilola Ilesanmi, 2023. "Exploring The Role of High Government Debt on Economic Growth: A Nonlinearity and Threshold Analysis for Africa’s Developing Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-15, February.
    18. Alimov, Behzod, 2019. "Private debt, public debt, and capital misallocation," IWH-CompNet Discussion Papers 7/2019, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    19. Nikolaos Filippakis & Theodoros V. Stamatopoulos, 2021. "Public Debt and Economic Growth: A Review of Contemporary Literature," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 19(1), pages 33-50.
    20. D'Andrea, Sara, 2022. "A Meta-Analysis on the Debt-Growth Relationship," MPRA Paper 114409, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Abdul Jalil, 2020. "Debt Sustainability: Economic Growth is the Panacea," PIDE Knowledge Brief 2020:19, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.

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