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Firm growth and the illusion of randomness

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  • Derbyshire, James
  • Garnsey, Elizabeth

Abstract

This paper shows that randomness can be an artefact of the methods used to examine firm performance. It questions the recent equating of entrepreneurship with gambling based on the assumption of random firm performance. It shows that complexity science provides a useful alternative perspective on randomness in relation to firm performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Derbyshire, James & Garnsey, Elizabeth, 2014. "Firm growth and the illusion of randomness," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 1, pages 8-11.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jobuve:v:1-2:y:2014:i::p:8-11
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbvi.2014.09.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Malerba,Franco & Brusoni,Stefano (ed.), 2007. "Perspectives on Innovation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521685610, January.
    2. Elizabeth Garnsey & Erik Stam & Paul Heffernan, 2006. "New Firm Growth: Exploring Processes and Paths," Industry and Innovation, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 1-20.
    3. Alex Coad, 2009. "The Growth of Firms," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13424.
    4. Yang, Tiantian & Aldrich, Howard E., 2012. "Out of sight but not out of mind: Why failure to account for left truncation biases research on failure rates," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 477-492.
    5. Davidsson, Per & Steffens, Paul & Fitzsimmons, Jason, 2009. "Growing profitable or growing from profits: Putting the horse in front of the cart?," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 388-406, July.
    6. Franco Malerba, 2007. "Innovation and the evolution of industries," Springer Books, in: Uwe Cantner & Franco Malerba (ed.), Innovation, Industrial Dynamics and Structural Transformation, pages 7-27, Springer.
    7. Malerba,Franco & Brusoni,Stefano (ed.), 2007. "Perspectives on Innovation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521866644, January.
    8. Coad, Alex & Frankish, Julian & Roberts, Richard G. & Storey, David J., 2013. "Growth paths and survival chances: An application of Gambler's Ruin theory," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 615-632.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Derbyshire, James & Garnsey, Elizabeth, 2015. "Are firm growth paths random? A further response regarding Gambler's Ruin Theory," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 3(C), pages 9-11.
    2. Alex Coad & Sven-Olov Daunfeldt & Daniel Halvarsson, 2022. "Amundsen versus Scott: are growth paths related to firm performance?," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 593-610, August.
    3. Alex Coad & Stjepan Srhoj, 2020. "Catching Gazelles with a Lasso: Big data techniques for the prediction of high-growth firms," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 541-565, October.
    4. Giulio Bottazzi & Taewon Kang & Federico Tamagni, 2023. "Persistence in firm growth: inference from conditional quantile transition matrices," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 745-770, August.
    5. Ari Hyytinen & Petri Rouvinen & Mika Pajarinen & Joosua Virtanen, 2023. "Ex Ante Predictability of Rapid Growth: A Design Science Approach," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 47(6), pages 2465-2493, November.
    6. Crawford, G. Christopher & Joo, Harry & Aguinis, Herman, 2024. "Under the weight of heavy tails: A power law perspective on the emergence of outliers in entrepreneurship," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    7. Schneck, Stefan & Werner, Arndt & Wolter, Hans-Jürgen, 2021. "A replication study on growth paths of young firms: Evidence from German administrative data," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 16(C).
    8. Habermann, Harald, 2017. "Business takeovers and firm growth: Empirical evidence from a German panel," Working Papers 01/17, Institut für Mittelstandsforschung (IfM) Bonn.
    9. Coad, Alex & Frankish, Julian S. & Roberts, Richard G. & Storey, David J, 2015. "Are firm growth paths random? A reply to “Firm growth and the illusion of randomness”," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 3(C), pages 5-8.
    10. Michael Anyadike-Danes & Mark Hart, 2018. "All grown up? The fate after 15 years of a quarter of a million UK firms born in 1998," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 45-76, January.
    11. Alex Coad, 2022. "Lumps, Bumps and Jumps in the Firm Growth Process," Foundations and Trends(R) in Entrepreneurship, now publishers, vol. 18(4), pages 212-267, April.
    12. Delmar, Frédéric & Wallin, Jonas & Nofal, Ahmed Maged, 2022. "Modeling new-firm growth and survival with panel data using event magnitude regression," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 37(5).
    13. Vasconcelos Gomes, Leonardo Augusto de & Salerno, Mario Sergio & Phaal, Robert & Probert, David R., 2018. "How entrepreneurs manage collective uncertainties in innovation ecosystems," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 164-185.

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    Keywords

    Firm growth; Randomness;

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