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Overconfidence in estimation: Testing the anchoring-and-adjustment hypothesis

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  • Block, Richard A.
  • Harper, David R.

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  • Block, Richard A. & Harper, David R., 1991. "Overconfidence in estimation: Testing the anchoring-and-adjustment hypothesis," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 188-207, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jobhdp:v:49:y:1991:i:2:p:188-207
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    Cited by:

    1. Yi-Fen Chen & Shi-Han Chang, 2016. "The online framing effect: the moderating role of warning, brand familiarity, and product type," Electronic Commerce Research, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 355-374, September.
    2. Matthew B. Welsh & Steve H. Begg, 2018. "More-or-less elicitation (MOLE): reducing bias in range estimation and forecasting," EURO Journal on Decision Processes, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 6(1), pages 171-212, June.
    3. George Deltas & Richard Engelbrecht-Wiggans, 2005. "Naive Bidding," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(3), pages 328-338, March.
    4. Bambauer-Sachse, Silke & Christina Mangold, Sabrina, 2009. "Are temporally reframed prices really advantageous? A more detailed look at the processes triggered by temporally reframed prices," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 451-457.
    5. Arash Baghaei Lakeh & Navid Ghaffarzadegan & Luis Luna-Reyes, 2016. "The dual-process theory and understanding of stocks and flows," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 32(3-4), pages 309-331, July.
    6. Yufei Ren & Rachel Croson, 2013. "Overconfidence in Newsvendor Orders: An Experimental Study," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(11), pages 2502-2517, November.
    7. Dubard Barbosa, Saulo & Fayolle, Alain & Smith, Brett R., 2019. "Biased and overconfident, unbiased but going for it: How framing and anchoring affect the decision to start a new venture," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 528-557.
    8. Juslin, Peter & Winman, Anders & Olsson, Henrik, 2003. "Calibration, additivity, and source independence of probability judgments in general knowledge and sensory discrimination tasks," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 92(1-2), pages 34-51.
    9. Bonaccorsi, Andrea & Apreda, Riccardo & Fantoni, Gualtiero, 2020. "Expert biases in technology foresight. Why they are a problem and how to mitigate them," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    10. repec:cup:judgdm:v:15:y:2020:i:5:p:783-797 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Christine R. Ohlert & Barbara E. Weißenberger, 2020. "Debiasing escalation of commitment: the effectiveness of decision aids to enhance de-escalation," Journal of Management Control: Zeitschrift für Planung und Unternehmenssteuerung, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 405-438, February.
    12. Julian Diaz, III, 1997. "An Investigation into the Impact of Previous Expert Value Estimates on Appraisal Judgment," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 13(1), pages 57-66.
    13. Chapman, Gretchen B. & Johnson, Eric J., 1999. "Anchoring, Activation, and the Construction of Values, , , , , ," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 115-153, August.
    14. Saulo Dubard Barbosa & Alain Fayolle & Brett Smith, 2019. "Biased and overconfident, unbiased but going for it: How framing and anchoring affect the decision to start a new venture," Post-Print hal-01988083, HAL.
    15. David R. Mandel & Robert N. Collins & Evan F. Risko & Jonathan A. Fugelsang, 2020. "Effect of confidence interval construction on judgment accuracy," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 15(5), pages 783-797, September.
    16. Moore, Don A. & Carter, Ashli B. & Yang, Heather H.J., 2015. "Wide of the mark: Evidence on the underlying causes of overprecision in judgment," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 110-120.
    17. Whyte, Glen & Sebenius, James K., 1997. "The Effect of Multiple Anchors on Anchoring in Individual and Group Judgment," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 74-85, January.
    18. López-Pérez, Raúl & Rodriguez-Moral, Antonio & Vorsatz, Marc, 2021. "Simplified mental representations as a cause of overprecision," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    19. Winkler, Jens & Moser, Roger, 2016. "Biases in future-oriented Delphi studies: A cognitive perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 63-76.
    20. Ferretti, Valentina & Montibeller, Gilberto & von Winterfeldt, Detlof, 2023. "Testing the effectiveness of debiasing techniques to reduce overprecision in the elicitation of subjective continuous probability distributions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(2), pages 661-675.
    21. Sharma, Karmini & Castagnetti, Alessandro, 2023. "Demand for information by gender: An experimental study," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 207(C), pages 172-202.
    22. Sulian Wang & Chen Wang, 2021. "Quantile Judgments of Lognormal Losses: An Experimental Investigation," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 18(1), pages 78-99, March.

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