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Public investment, debt, and welfare: A quantitative analysis

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  • Chatterjee, Santanu
  • Gibson, John
  • Rioja, Felix

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the relationship between infrastructure investment and economic welfare in the context of a heterogeneous agent, incomplete-markets economy. Using a quantitative model to match the key aggregate and distributional features of the U.S. economy over the period 1990–2015, we show that the welfare-maximizing share of public investment in GDP depends critically on whether one internalizes the transition path between stationary equilibria or not. When welfare changes are evaluated by only comparing long-run stationary equilibria, the model implies that the government should increase infrastructure investment above its average share of 4 percent of GDP in the data. However, once the transition path and short-run dynamics are internalized, welfare-maximization generates an intertemporal trade-off in the path of infrastructure spending: a short-run increase significantly above its observed share in the data, but a long-run decline below this share to satisfy the government’s budget constraint.

Suggested Citation

  • Chatterjee, Santanu & Gibson, John & Rioja, Felix, 2018. "Public investment, debt, and welfare: A quantitative analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 204-217.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:56:y:2018:i:c:p:204-217
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2018.01.007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Infrastructure; Public investment; Heterogeneous agents; Public debt; Welfare; Transitional dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
    • H4 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

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