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Determinants of external imbalances: The role of taxes, government spending, and productivity

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  • Leiderman, Leonardo
  • Razin, Assaf

Abstract

This paper develops and estimates a dynamic optimizing model of the current account. The model focuses, on real factors that determine the evolution of saving and investment, and hence the external balance. Three types of shocks are at the center of the analysis: productivity shocks, shocks to labor input, and tax policy shocks. While our approach is in line with the real business cycle models of the current account, the distinguishing feature of the work is the application of econometric methods to time series data for a small open economy so as to directly estimate the parameters governing saving and investment under rational expectations restrictions.
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  • Leiderman, Leonardo & Razin, Assaf, 1991. "Determinants of external imbalances: The role of taxes, government spending, and productivity," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 421-450, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jjieco:v:5:y:1991:i:4:p:421-450
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    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Aschauer, David Alan, 1985. "Fiscal Policy and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 117-127, March.
    3. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1981. "The Current Account and macroeconomic Adjustment in the 1970s," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1), pages 201-282.
    4. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-247, April.
    5. Matthew D. Shapiro, 1986. "Investment, Output, and the Cost of Capital," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 17(1), pages 111-164.
    6. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Glick, Reuven & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Global versus country-specific productivity shocks and the current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 159-192, February.
    2. Ms. Luisa Zanforlin & Mr. César Calderón & Mr. Alberto Chong, 2001. "Are African Current Account Deficits Different? Stylized Facts, Transitory Shocks, and Decomposition Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2001/004, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Gian Maria Milesi Ferretti & Assaf Razin, 1999. "Current Account Deficits and Capital Flows in East Asia and Latin America: Are the Early Nineties Different From the Early Eighties," NBER Chapters, in: Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries: Theory, Practice, and Policy Issues, pages 57-108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The intertemporal approach to the current account," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 34, pages 1731-1799, Elsevier.
    5. Lori L. Leachman & Michael Thorpe, 1998. "Intertemporal Solvency in the Small Open Economy of Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(226), pages 231-242, September.
    6. Assaf Razin & Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti, 1996. "Current Account Sustainability: Selected East Asian and Latin American Experiences," IMF Working Papers 1996/110, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Calderon Cesar Augusto & Chong Alberto & Loayza Norman V., 2002. "Determinants of Current Account Deficits in Developing Countries," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-33, March.
    8. Leachman, Lori L. & Francis, Bill B., 2000. "Multicointegration Analysis of the Sustainability of Foreign Debt," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 207-227, April.
    9. Milesi-Ferretti, Gian & Razin, Assaf, 1997. "Current Account Deficits and Capital Flows in East Asia and Latin America: Are the Nineties Different From the Early Eighties," Foerder Institute for Economic Research Working Papers 275626, Tel-Aviv University > Foerder Institute for Economic Research.
    10. Razin, Assaf, 1993. "The Dynamic-Optimizing Approach to the Current Account: Theory and Evidence," Foerder Institute for Economic Research Working Papers 275573, Tel-Aviv University > Foerder Institute for Economic Research.
    11. Assaf Razin & Andrew Rose, 1992. "Business Cycle Volatility and Openness: An Exploratory Cross-Section Analysis," NBER Working Papers 4208, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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