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The effect of hosting 3.4 million refugees on native population mortality

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  • Aygün, Aysun
  • Güray Kırdar, Murat
  • Tuncay, Berna

Abstract

As of the end of 2017, 3.4 million Syrian refugees lived in Turkey. These refugees left a country where the health system was utterly broken. Several studies report that Syrian refugees faced numerous diseases during their exodus, brought certain infectious diseases to the hosting communities, and have a high incidence of health care utilization. Moreover, they have much higher fertility rates than natives. We examine the effect of Syrian refugees on the health care resources in Turkey and on natives’ mortality—with a focus on infant, child, and elderly mortality. Our OLS results yield suggestive evidence of an adverse effect of the refugee shock on infant and child mortality. However, we find that this is a result of endogenous settlement patterns of refugees. Once we account for the endogeneity using a plausibly exogenous instrument, we find no evidence of an effect on native mortality for any age group. We also analyze the refugees’ pressure on the health care services in Turkey and the government's response to understand our findings on mortality outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Aygün, Aysun & Güray Kırdar, Murat & Tuncay, Berna, 2021. "The effect of hosting 3.4 million refugees on native population mortality," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jhecon:v:80:y:2021:i:c:s0167629621001193
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2021.102534
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    Cited by:

    1. Murat Demirci & Andrew D. Foster & Murat G. Kirdar, 2022. "Child Growth and Refugee Status: Evidence from Syrian Migrants in Turkey," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2208, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    2. Aksu, Ege & Erzan, Refik & Kırdar, Murat Güray, 2022. "The impact of mass migration of Syrians on the Turkish labor market," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    3. Cansu Oymak & Jean-François Maystadt, 2023. "Can refugees improve native children’s health?: Evidence from Turkey," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2023017, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    4. Kırdar, Murat G. & López Cruz, Ivan & Türküm, Betül, 2022. "The effect of 3.6 million refugees on crime," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 568-582.
    5. Zhou, Yang-Yang & Grossman, Guy & Ge, Shuning, 2023. "Inclusive refugee-hosting can improve local development and prevent public backlash," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    6. Akgündüz, Yusuf Emre & Bağır, Yusuf Kenan & Cılasun, Seyit Mümin & Kırdar, Murat Güray, 2023. "Consequences of a massive refugee influx on firm performance and market structure," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    7. Aracı, Doğu Tan & Demirci, Murat & Kırdar, Murat Güray, 2022. "Development level of hosting areas and the impact of refugees on natives’ labor market outcomes in Turkey☆," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    8. Mustafa Özer & Jan Fidrmuc, 2024. "Does Immigration Affect the Natives’ Mental Health? Causal Evidence from Forced Syrian Migration to Turkey," CESifo Working Paper Series 11399, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Refugees; Health care resources; Native mortality; Infant; Child; Elderly; Instrumental variables;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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