Intermediation in the interbank lending market

We examine systemic risk in the interbank market. We first establish that in the German interbank lending market, a few large banks intermediate funding flows between many smaller periphery banks. We then develop a network model in which banks trade off the costs and benefits of link formation. The model is structurally estimated using banks’ preferences as revealed by the observed network structure before the Great Financial Crisis. In out-of-sample tests, model estimates based on pre-crisis data successfully predict changes in the network structure and lending to firms during the Great Financial Crisis. Finally, for each of the intermediaries, we quantify systemic risk and the impact of European Central Bank funding in reducing this risk.