IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jfinec/v105y2012i3p511-522.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk and the cross section of stock returns

Author

Listed:
  • Burlacu, Radu
  • Fontaine, Patrice
  • Jimenez-Garcès, Sonia
  • Seasholes, Mark S.

Abstract

This paper mathematically transforms unobservable rational expectation equilibrium model parameters (information precision and supply uncertainty) into a single variable that is correlated with expected returns and that can be estimated with recently observed data. Our variable can be used to explain the cross section of returns in theoretical, numerical, and empirical analyses. Using Center for Research in Security Prices data, we show that a −1σ to +1σ change in our variable is associated with a 0.31% difference in average returns the following month (equaling 3.78% per annum). The results are statistically significant at the 1% level. Our results remain economically and statistically significant after controlling for stocks' market capitalizations, book-to-market ratios, liquidities, and the probabilities of information-based trading.

Suggested Citation

  • Burlacu, Radu & Fontaine, Patrice & Jimenez-Garcès, Sonia & Seasholes, Mark S., 2012. "Risk and the cross section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 511-522.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:105:y:2012:i:3:p:511-522
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2012.03.008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304405X12000451
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jfineco.2012.03.008?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bruno Biais & Peter Bossaerts & Chester Spatt, 2010. "Equilibrium Asset Pricing and Portfolio Choice Under Asymmetric Information," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(4), pages 1503-1543, April.
    2. Duarte, Jefferson & Young, Lance, 2009. "Why is PIN priced?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 119-138, February.
    3. David Easley & Soeren Hvidkjaer & Maureen O'Hara, 2002. "Is Information Risk a Determinant of Asset Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2185-2221, October.
    4. Praveen Kumar & Sorin M. Sorescu & Rodney D. Boehme & Bartley R. Danielsen, 2008. "Estimation Risk, Information, and the Conditional CAPM: Theory and Evidence," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1037-1075, May.
    5. Kewei Hou & Tobias J. Moskowitz, 2005. "Market Frictions, Price Delay, and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 981-1020.
    6. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
    7. Jack Hayya & Donald Armstrong & Nicolas Gressis, 1975. "A Note on the Ratio of Two Normally Distributed Variables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(11), pages 1338-1341, July.
    8. Shanken, Jay, 1992. "On the Estimation of Beta-Pricing Models," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 1-33.
    9. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:1:p:65-105 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Berk, Jonathan B, 1995. "A Critique of Size-Related Anomalies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(2), pages 275-286.
    11. Litzenberger, Robert H. & Ramaswamy, Krishna, 1979. "The effect of personal taxes and dividends on capital asset prices : Theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 163-195, June.
    12. Dasgupta, Sudipto & Gan, Jie & Gao, Ning, 2010. "Transparency, Price Informativeness, and Stock Return Synchronicity: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(5), pages 1189-1220, October.
    13. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    14. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    15. Artyom Durnev & Randall Morck & Bernard Yeung & Paul Zarowin, 2003. "Does Greater Firm‐Specific Return Variation Mean More or Less Informed Stock Pricing?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(5), pages 797-836, December.
    16. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    17. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    18. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1553-1583 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Admati, Anat R, 1985. "A Noisy Rational Expectations Equilibrium for Multi-asset Securities Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(3), pages 629-657, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Campbell R. Harvey & Yan Liu & Heqing Zhu, 2014. ". . . and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," NBER Working Papers 20592, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Patrick J. Kelly, 2014. "Information Efficiency and Firm-Specific Return Variation," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(04), pages 1-44.
    2. Aslan, Hadiye & Easley, David & Hvidkjaer, Soeren & O'Hara, Maureen, 2011. "The characteristics of informed trading: Implications for asset pricing," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 782-801.
    3. Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2010. "The Cross†Section of Expected Stock Returns: What Have We Learnt from the Past Twenty†Five Years of Research?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 16(1), pages 27-42, January.
    4. Cujean, Julien & Andrei, Daniel & Fournier, Mathieu, 2019. "The Low-Minus-High Portfolio and the Factor Zoo," CEPR Discussion Papers 14153, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.
    6. Joachim Gassen & Hollis A. Skaife & David Veenman, 2020. "Illiquidity and the Measurement of Stock Price Synchronicity," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(1), pages 419-456, March.
    7. Yan, Yuxing & Zhang, Shaojun, 2014. "Quality of PIN estimates and the PIN-return relationship," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 137-149.
    8. Florackis, Chris & Gregoriou, Andros & Kostakis, Alexandros, 2011. "Trading frequency and asset pricing on the London Stock Exchange: Evidence from a new price impact ratio," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3335-3350.
    9. Joel Vanden, 2015. "Noisy information and the size effect in stock returns," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 77-107, February.
    10. Moonsoo Kang & Kiseok Nam, 2015. "Informed trade and idiosyncratic return variation," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 551-572, April.
    11. Figlioli, Bruno & Lima, Fabiano Guasti, 2019. "Stock pricing in Latin America: The synchronicity effect," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 1-17.
    12. Xiaofei Zhao, 2017. "Does Information Intensity Matter for Stock Returns? Evidence from Form 8-K Filings," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(5), pages 1382-1404, May.
    13. Jank, Stephan & Roling, Christoph & Smajlbegovic, Esad, 2021. "Flying under the radar: The effects of short-sale disclosure rules on investor behavior and stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 209-233.
    14. Hou, Kewei & Peng, Lin & Xiong, Wei, 2006. "R2 and Price Inefficiency," Working Paper Series 2006-23, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    15. Jennifer N. Carpenter & Fangzhou Lu & Robert F. Whitelaw, 2015. "The Real Value of China's Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 20957, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Fenghua Wen & Yujie Yuan & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2019. "Cross-shareholding networks and stock price synchronicity: Evidence from China," Papers 1903.01655, arXiv.org.
    17. Acharya, Viral V. & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2005. "Asset pricing with liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 375-410, August.
    18. Chung, Kee H. & Wang, Junbo & Wu, Chunchi, 2019. "Volatility and the cross-section of corporate bond returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 397-417.
    19. Kee-Hong Bae & Jin-Mo Kim & Yang Ni, 2013. "Is Firm-specific Return Variation a Measure of Information Efficiency?," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 407-445, December.
    20. Erik Kole & Reza Brink, "undated". "Constructing and Using Double-adjusted Alphas to Analyze Mutual Fund Performance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-029/IV, Tinbergen Institute.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk premiums; Cross-sectional asset pricing; REE models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:105:y:2012:i:3:p:511-522. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.